The cost of a vegetarian thali increased to Rs 28.4 in June from Rs 27.1 in the corresponding month last year, while a non-vegetarian thali cost Rs 58.2 compared with Rs 54.8 over the same period.
Tomato prices rose 31% year-on-year to Rs 42 per kg due to delayed and lower summer crop planting. Vegetable oil and LPG prices each increased 10% year-on-year amid supply disruptions caused by the West Asia conflict, while onion prices edged up 2% as higher-priced stored rabi stocks entered the market.
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“Tomato prices are expected to stay firm through July and August, supported by delayed kharif planting and seasonally lean supplies,” said Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence.
However, staggered arrivals of the summer crop, particularly from southern states where farmers replanted after heat stress, are expected to temper the seasonal price hike, he said.
The southwest monsoon has remained weak so far, with cumulative rainfall between June 1 and July 7 around 17% below the long-period average.Sharma said that a sustained rainfall deficit could lower kharif onion and tomato yields through delayed planting and moisture stress.
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He added that an extended rainfall shortfall during critical crop growth stages could also affect kharif paddy yields, particularly during flowering, tightening supplies from key producing states such as Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra and lending support to rice prices.
The increase in thali costs was partly cushioned by a 14% year-on-year decline in potato prices following fresh rabi arrivals.
“Potato prices are likely to edge up as cold-storage stocks are gradually released into the market,” said Sharma.
Non-vegetarian thali cost rose due to an estimated 7% on-year increase in broiler prices, which accounted for nearly half of the meal’s cost. Broiler prices rose due to tight supplies after extreme summer heat increased bird mortality, reduced weight gain and discouraged fresh chick placements.
On a monthly basis, the cost of vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis rose 4% and 3%, respectively, in June.