Maize acreage may see some moderation in the crop year 2026-27 (Jul-Jun) after strong expansion in recent years driven by the government’s ethanol programme. “Last year, a lot of soybean acreage shifted to maize because of ethanol demand. This year, especially because of strong oilseed prices, some of that area will move back to beans,” said a large seed company’s top executive.
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Prices of soybean are ruling high making it attractive for farmers, said Rahul Chahuan of iGrain India, adding that prices of oilseed are way above the minimum support price. “It is also a robust crop and could be preferred in a year with less rainfall prediction,” he added.
Growers are likely to prefer crops that require lower fertiliser use and carry lesser risk in an uncertain rainfall season. Maize loves nutrients and given the latest situation of fertilisers due to the west Asia crisis, farmers may move towards crops like soybean and cotton.
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“Cotton could gain ground as it is a long duration crop,” said Sumit Gupta, CEO of WASEDA Global Commodities, adding that during the years where there are chances of less rainfall, farmers choose long duration crops. They may also avoid aggressive planting of tur despite firm prices as the crop is vulnerable to erratic weather and pest attacks. Lower tur output had pushed India’s pulses inflation to a record 20.73% in December 2023. However, other kharif pulses such as masur and urad are expected to find favour with farmers as legumes do not require too much soil nutrient.
PM Narendra Modi has called on farmers to reduce chemical fertiliser use by 50% to improve soil health and curb import dependence amid elevated global prices – remarks that raised concerns over potential supply tightness ahead of the kharif sowing season.