Besides, development of El Nino conditions could potentially disrupt rural demand, impacting revenues of a large section of the corporate sector, which had posted a healthy revenue growth in the March quarter of 2025-26.
“Operating profit margin (OPM) could potentially slip by 100-150 basis points in Q1 (April-June) 2026-27 due to elevated crude oil prices and a rise in the overall cost of imports due to INR depreciation; although sectoral divergences will remain,” ICRA said in a statement.
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It said the West Asia conflict and El Nino pose demand risks, and inflationary pressure may impact earnings of India Inc in the near term.
ICRA projected India Inc to witness moderation in its revenue growth to single digit in Q1 2026-27 (against a 13.2 per cent YoY growth in Q4 2025-26).
Elevated fuel, logistics, and packaging costs arising from the West Asia crisis and cost escalation for imported inputs caused by INR depreciation are likely to weigh on the aggregate profit margins of India Inc in the near term.However, the margin pressure could be partially offset by price revision, albeit partially or with a lag, as an abrupt price hike may impact demand and competitive position.
ICRA Senior Vice President & Co-Group Head-Corporate Ratings Kinjal Shah said while stable income trends are likely to support urban consumption to some extent, the overall demand environment is expected to remain challenging due to inflationary pressure amid a surge in crude oil prices and INR depreciation, constraining volume growth in consumption-oriented sectors.
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“While the balance sheets remain resilient, the operating environment is becoming less conducive for investments due to the West Asia crisis. Private capex stands out in select segments of manufacturing (like defence, electronics manufacturing, electric mobility and other production-linked incentive-supported segments), power equipment, real estate, data centres, etc,” Shah said.
Over the medium term, sustainability of India Inc’s credit profile will depend on how effectively policy measures and sector-specific developments mitigate uncertainties surrounding global trade dynamics, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical risks,” Shah added.