Global government bonds stabilized on Wednesday, taking a breather from Tuesday’s steep selloff ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from July’s meeting.
Factors driving this week’s bond selloff, which lifted yields to multiyear highs, haven’t gone away, however.
Investors remain concerned about the lack of prospects for ending the U.S.-Iran conflict anytime soon, which leaves naval traffic disrupted via the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy prices elevated and inflation worries alive.
“We are concerned about the development in the Middle East and see no easy way out of the current situation,” Mohit Kumar, global economist at Jefferies, said in a note. “Iran is likely to exert more pressure on the U.S. knowing [President] Trump’s weakness going into the mid-terms.”
In European trade, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield, which hit a 19-year high of 5.337% on Tuesday, fell 1.2 basis points on the day to 5.273%, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.8 basis points to 4.687%, while the 10-year German Bund yield declined 0.3 basis points to 3.251%, having hit 3.272% on Tuesday, a level unseen since 2011.
“Bond markets are showing tentative signs of stabilization,” said Hauke Siemssen, rates strategist at Commerzbank, in a note.
Relatively benign U.K. inflation data also caused yields on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, to fall. The 10-year U.K. gilt outperformed its eurozone peers, with its yield falling 2.6 basis points to 5.048%, pulling away from Tuesday’s near four-week high of 5.110%.
Annual U.K. headline CPI inflation rose to 2.9% in July, from 2.6% in June, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. However, this was in line with the consensus forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll and most analysts still expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold for the time being.
For now, investors are turning their attention back to the economy and the Fed’s minutes at 1800 GMT, which could be a key mover. U.S. interest rates were left on hold in July but Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh sent a strong message that bringing down inflation was a key priority.
Since that meeting, expectations of a U.S. interest-rate hike have eased following weak jobs data and inflation figures that were in line with forecasts. Markets currently price a 31% probability of a rate hike in September and a near 100% probability of a 25-basis point hike in December, according to LSEG.
The Fed’s minutes “are likely to attract abnormally high attention given the large reaction to Warsh’s messaging from the U.S. long-end [long-dated Treasurys] after that meeting,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
Etoro market analyst Maximilian Wienke said the minutes suffer from a crucial drawback, however, as they reflect discussions held prior to the release of recent, weaker labor market data and benign inflation figures.
“The minutes may sound more hawkish than the current data would suggest,” he said.
Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@wsj.com