The report comes as UpGrad seeks Competition Commission of India approval for its proposed acquisition of SoftBank-backed Unacademy at less than a tenth of the edtech company’s peak valuation. Earlier this month, ET reported that UpGrad would buy Unacademy for Rs 2,055 crore ($218 million) against its last private market valuation of $3.4 billion.
According to the report, UpGrad was profitable for the first 11 months of FY26, reporting a Rs 38 crore profit after tax on revenue of Rs 1,532 crore. These numbers are provisional and unaudited.
For the fiscal year ended March 31, UpGrad estimates revenue of Rs 1,972 crore, up 26% from Rs 1,569 crore in FY25. It expects profit after tax to cross Rs 60 crore, compared with a net loss of Rs 274 crore in FY25. The projections imply that UpGrad expects to add more than Rs 440 crore in revenue in March alone.
The report was drafted in the last week of March by Incwert Valuation, a registered valuer entity under the Companies Act.
UpGrad did not respond to questions sent by ET.
Growth riding on acquisitions
The report lays out an aggressive growth path, with UpGrad expecting revenue to grow 30% in FY27, 64% in FY28, 59% in FY29 and 46.5% in FY30.
“The management has indicated potential acquisitions, which are expected to contribute to the projected growth,” the report said. This likely includes the proposed Unacademy acquisition, which is expected to add about Rs 500 crore to UpGrad’s consolidated sales.
The report said growth will be driven by Atlas University, study-abroad, international expansion and new direct-to-consumer initiatives. Atlas University has grown to around 7,500 students, giving UpGrad a recurring revenue base. Its NAAC accreditation also allows it to offer online programmes, helping it grow enrolments beyond campus capacity.
UpGrad is expanding its study-abroad business through offline counselling centres, where early cohorts have shown better conversion rates than digital channels. It is also looking to scale its international workforce programmes in Vietnam, Thailand and the UAE. New initiatives, including its direct-to-consumer business and School of Tech, are expected to scale over the next 12-18 months.
The company has projected capital expenditure at 2-3% of revenue each year during the forecast period. Capex is expected to rise from Rs 5 crore in FY26 to Rs 51 crore in FY27, Rs 383 crore in FY28, Rs 200 crore in FY29, Rs 318 crore in FY30 and Rs 460 crore in FY31.
These projections come at a time when UpGrad’s growth has slowed. In FY25, revenue from operations rose a little over 5% to Rs 1,569 crore. For FY26, while the company has projected 26% growth, it generated Rs 1,532 crore in the first 11 months.
Cost cuts underpin profit targets
UpGrad’s management expects net profit to rise from over Rs 60 crore in FY26 to Rs 5,334 crore in FY31. It also expects Ebitda to cross Rs 7,000 crore by FY31, from about Rs 110 crore currently.
The profitability assumptions rest partly on operating leverage and cost control. Direct costs, including university share, delivery and content costs, are projected to average 35.3% of revenue, higher than the 30.5% average between FY23 and FY25.
Employee benefit expenses are projected to fall to 19.6% of revenue from a historical average of 51.7%, while selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to decline to 20.3% from 43.5%.
UpGrad expects to lower customer acquisition costs through organic channels, brand-led demand and institutional partnerships, the report said. The company has rationalised its workforce over the past two years, with the current team expected to support growth without a significant increase in headcount.
Fixed costs are expected to rise slower than revenue, while delivery costs are likely to be managed through standardised offerings and technology-led delivery. Better-margin programmes, repeat enrolments, cross-selling and stabilising international operations will support profitability, the report said.