In dollar terms, it would place the economy at about $3.79 trillion, unless growth estimates see a dramatic jump in the March quarter or the rupee surprises on the upside. This also shifts the expected timeline for India to overtake Japan as the third largest economy to 2027-28, from 2026-27, unless the Japanese economy weakens or exchange rate movements are supportive. The expected lower nominal GDP in this fiscal would also mean India is “slightly below a $4 trillion economy”, according to Crisil chief economist DK Joshi. Joshi and other economists, however, said they expect strong real GDP expansion in the next fiscal, citing support from private consumption and investments, and likely steady global growth. Asked about the $4 trillion goal, chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said, “We are on course to becoming the top three or the top four of largest economies in the world. There’s no doubt about that. It will happen in the course of the next few years.”
He said India’s growth rate after the Covid-19 pandemic has probably been among the best in the world, but whether a particular relative position is reached or not also depends on many other factors, like the exchange rate, which in India’s case was not favourable in 2025-26. Nageswaran said “the timing given what happens to exchange rates and the growth rates in other countries could be variable”, adding, “The timeline could vary depending on these parameters…. What we need to focus on is aspects in our control. Both the policy and the reform direction are paving the way for sustained non-inflationary growth of at least 7% in real terms.”
According to a November 2025 report of the IMF, the Indian economy could exceed the $4-trillion threshold in 2025-26 and rise to $4.96 trillion by 2027-28, just shy of the $5 trillion milestone.