The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on the period of 1971-2020 is 87 cm as the El Niño weather pattern would weigh on precipitation, said the weather office, sparking concerns about crop output, consumption and inflation.
Private weather forecaster Skymet, in its forecast last week, had projected 6% below normal rainfall or 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) at around 817 mm for the four-month long season.
The IMD said that below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country, except some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.
Also Read: IMD flags below-normal monsoon for 2026; rainfall seen at 92% of long-term average
IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2026.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season, the IMD said.A positive IOD significantly strengthens the Indian monsoon, acting as a booster that often yields above-average rainfall, even during El Niño years.
The weather office also said that the northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2026) was slightly below normal, adding that winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a general inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country.