In its September Interim Economic Outlook, the OECD said India’s growth is expected to moderate from 7.8% in FY26 to 7.1% in FY27 and further to 6.5% in FY28.
The Paris-based forecaster warned that despite recent strong momentum, reduced purchasing power is expected to weaken growth in India through the second half of this year, before a gradual recovery takes place in 2027.
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This comes after Fitch Ratings earlier today raised India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4% and S&P Global Ratings projected 7% growth, up from its earlier 6.6%. Moody’s had already raised its forecast to 7% from 6% last week.
All the uprades are arriving after India reported 7.8% GDP growth in the April-June quarter.
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Fitch’s latest upgrade raised its FY27 growth forecast by a sizeable 50 basis points, saying India’s 7.8% expansion in the June quarter showed that “the economy has shown resilience in the face of the shock from the US-Iran war, despite the strong terms-of-trade deterioration seen in the first half of 2026.”
Just a few hours earlier, S&P Global Ratings raised its FY27 forecast to 7% from 6.6%, while Moody’s last week lifted its projection to 7% from 6%.
The upgrades come alongside growth in investment, consumption, manufacturing and services, as well as strong credit expansion.
Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment in assets such as factories, machinery and infrastructure, grew 11.9% in the June quarter. Manufacturing expanded 9.2%, while private consumption grew 7.1%. Financial, real estate and professional services grew about 12.1%.
India entered FY27 facing many of the pressures that would normally be expected to slow an oil-importing economy: war in West Asia, crude prices above $100 a barrel, disrupted shipping routes, global trade uncertainty and the threat of higher US tariffs.
Yet the expected economy-wide slowdown did not arrive in the first quarter.