Record rice stocks will help the world’s biggest exporter increase shipments despite concerns over rainfall due to an El Nino weather pattern, while an improvement in wheat inventories will help the federal government tame any price spikes later this year by increasing open market sales.
State reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, totalled a record 68.43 million metric tons as of June 1, far exceeding the government’s target of 13.5 million tons for July 1.
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Wheat stocks stood at 53.41 million tons on June 1, well above the government’s target of 27.6 million tons and the highest since 2021, the data showed.
“Rice stocks are more than adequate. That should give the government the confidence to continue exports despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall, which could affect production,” said a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading firm.
India, which accounts for around 40% of global rice exports, removed the last of its export curbs on the grain in March 2025.In recent years, India has held large rice stocks while facing tight wheat supplies, but this year the country has abundant inventories of both grains, said a Mumbai-based dealer.
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“The government surprised the market by procuring 35 million tons of wheat. It is now in a comfortable position and can release stocks aggressively into the market to keep prices in check,” the dealer said.
India’s rice and wheat production reached record highs in the 2025/26 crop year, at 154.02 million tons and 120.66 million tons, respectively, as ample monsoon rainfall encouraged farmers to expand acreage.