Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter of 2025-26 is projected at 6.7%. The National Statistics Office is scheduled to release the provisional GDP estimates for 2025-26 and quarterly estimates for the January-March period on June 5.
GDP growth for 2025-26 is forecast at 7.6% year-on-year, based on official estimates.
Megha Arora, director-economics at Ind-Ra, said key headwinds in the current financial year include geopolitical tensions, high inflation, rupee depreciation, lower capital expenditure, weak global trade, strong 2025-26 growth (base effect), low industrial production and a likely El Nino from mid-2026.
Ind-Ra projects inflation at 4.4% in 2026-27, lower than the central bank’s forecast of 4.6%.
The agency said that easing of West Asia tensions, a decline in crude oil prices to below $95 a barrel, a weaker El Nino and stronger capital flows could boost the growth estimate. -Our Bureau