Global smartphone shipments have suffered a substantial and steeper decline for the third consecutive quarter, breaching the lower Q3 numbers in 14 years. The higher cost of components are making smartphones pricier, with weakening consumer affordability putting pressure on the overall smartphone market.
Tarun Pathak, Counterpoint’s Research Director, told HT India isn’t immune and the worst is still not over. “India’s smartphone shipments are expected to decline around 20% YoY in Q3 2026, based on preliminary estimates,” he said.
In recent weeks, most smartphone brands have increased the prices of phones that are already on sale, with new phones costing significantly more than their predecessors. In India, the Q3 decline comes off a strong base in the same period last year.
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“Although festive sales begin in October, phone makers typically build channel inventory in Q3 ahead of the festive season. However, higher device prices and subdued demand likely led to more cautious stocking this year,” Pathak said, adding that price-sensitive segments faced the greatest pressure, while premium and mid-premium devices remained relatively resilient.
The latest data by Counterpoint Research pegs smartphone shipments decline at 20% year-on-year in Q3 2026, and this follows an 11% drop in Q2 (that was the lowest Q2 level since 2013). Q1 2026 had also seen a 6% decline. The data suggested that because smartphone makers have passed on the higher cost of components to consumers, average smartphone retail prices have increased by 20% so far in 2026.
Pathak said memory prices are now up 5X within a year. “The global smartphone market is currently going through one of the most challenging times. The full brunt from the memory crisis was seen in Q3 2026, when the market sharply declined 20%, the weakest third quarter since 2012,” he said.
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Samsung leads the global market share stakes with 23% share, followed by Apple with 22%. The two runaway leaders face distant competition, with Xiaomi (10%), Oppo (9%) and Vivo (8%) trailing, each having lost market share as shipments fell year-on-year.
Xiaomi registered a 30% decline in shipments, while Oppo and Vivo clocked a 20% decline each. Each of these phone makers is on course to launch their flagship portfolios in this quarter, which should provide some impetus.
Despite a 3% decline in shipments, Samsung has taken advantage of an initial momentum with its Galaxy Z Fold8 foldable and according to Counterpoint, stable component supply has given their mid-range A series phones an advantage at a time when Chinese phone makers lost some momentum.
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Apple’s market share crossed 20% for the first time in Q3, despite a reduction in year-on-year shipment numbers. Some of the volume decline can be attributed to the fact that no consumer-spec and comparatively more affordable iPhone 18 has been released in September, and is now expected early next year.
Apple finally pulled the trigger on the price hikes towards the end of Q3, while the iPhone 18 Pro phones saw a stronger post-launch sales momentum than any ‘Pro’ generation previously.
Pathak said he doesn’t have a brighter outlook for the smartphone market to cling to, for the rest of the year.
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“The worst is still not over. Even though the premium segment is resilient, it is not immune as Samsung and Apple started increasing the price for their ultra premium portfolio. The upcoming quarter might be the worst for the market as even Apple and Samsung are cutting their production orders,” he said.
He added that while supply was an issue for a while, that has been taken over by broader consumer sentiments that are being dictated by macro headwinds and the overall economic uncertainty.
Phone makers have shifted to maximising profits over shipment numbers in this scenario. Any meaningful recovery of overall shipment volumes is unlikely, at least till the component costs reduce.