The same IMF report clarified that this is a “nominal” shift. In terms of Real GDP Growth, India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5% for 2026, compared to the UK’s projected growth of just 0.8%. The report’s medium-term projections suggest India will regain the 4th spot by 2027 and is on track for 3rd place by 2031.
India is expected to have clocked a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.6% in 2025-26, as per government projections.
Earlier this month, the World Bank raised India’s growth outlook for this fiscal to 6.6% from 6.3%, citing robust domestic demand and export performance. Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised its estimate to 6.9% from 6.5%, driven by increasing consumption, higher investment, supportive policies and recent trade agreements.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected 6.9% growth for this fiscal.
Globally, growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slower than the 3.4% recorded in 2025. This moderation largely reflects disruptions from the West Asia conflict, partly offset by recent strong data and lower tariff rates, according to the IMF.
Over the medium term, global growth is expected to stabilise at around this level, below the historical average of 3.7% between 2000 and 2019.