Forex kitty slips below $700 billion as bullion loses some sheen

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Mumbai: India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $11.4 billion to $698 billion in the week ended March 20, due to the revaluation of gold prices in the said week. The reserves fell below $700 billion for the first time in over two months.

Gold reserves decreased $135 billion to $117 billion, while the value of foreign currency assets rose by $2.1 billion to $557 billion.

During the period under review, gold prices had declined by 10%, and the rupee fell to its then-record low of 93.73, as worries over a prolonged US-Iran war lifted oil prices, hurting Indian assets across the board.

The currency has since extended its losses, falling to a record low of 94.84 on Friday, down over 3.5% year-to-date. The rupee closed at a record low of 94.81/$, weakening 84 paise from its previous close of 93.97/$1, LSEG data showed. Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.73% to $109.88 a barrel.

While state-run banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, the intervention was mild, traders said. In the event of only mild intervention during a period of heightened geopolitical event risk, the rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation. Many traders are now incorporating levels as weak as 97/$1 into their forecasts.


“It is possible that we may see some mild appreciation on Monday, as it is the last trading day of the fiscal year. Overall, RBI’s intervention has decreased, and they may not want to add additional forward positions into their books. But the way, the rupee has depreciated, we have to think of 100/$ levels as a serious possibility now,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors.



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