The central government has pegged India’s GDP growth rate at 7.4% in FY26, underscoring the resilience of the Indian economy in the face of Trump tariffs and in the absence of an India-US trade deal.
The projection is higher than that of the Reserve Bank of India’s at 7.3% and beat FY25’s GDP growth rate of 7.3%. In FY24, it was 9.2%.
The first advance GDP estimates, released by the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Wednesday, are almost in line with the median estimate of 7.5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The estimates are likely to be revised in Union Budget 2026, with the final figures released after the financial year ends.
The government is also set to revise how it calculates gross domestic product—a move that could materially alter growth estimates.
According to India’s first advance GDP estimates put out by MOSPI:
- India’s nominal gross domestic product is expected to grow by 8% in FY26, as against 9.7% in FY25.
- The real gross value added (GVA) is projected to grow at 7.3% in FY26, as against 6.4% in FY25.
- India’s nominal GVA is projected to expand by 7.7% in FY26, as against 9.3% in FY25.