In his usual bombastic style, Trump has been railing against the “rigged” judicial system and has called for his supporters to “protest, protest, protest” — in an eerie call back to the January 6 Capitol riots.
Though his lawyer has said that Trump’s statement is not based on any official communication from the prosecution team, the former US president is convinced that that he will be arrested. If that happens, how Trump is processed by law-enforcement officials in Manhattan may be unlike any defendant in history.
Here’s what may happen if Trump is indicted:
What is the pornstar case?
The current investigation, led by Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, an elected Democrat, centers on $130,000 paid weeks before the 2016 polls to stop porn star Stormy Daniels from going public about an affair she says she had with Trump years earlier.
Trump has denied having had an affair with Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, and has dismissed the investigation as politically motivated.
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AP Explains: Background on Trump’s New York case
On March 13, a New York court heard from Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen, who made the payment to Daniels. Cohen was sentenced to three years in prison in 2018 on related federal charges. He pleaded guilty but said he had been carrying out Trump’s orders.
Daniels herself met with prosecutors on March 15 and “agreed to make herself available as a witness, or for further inquiry if needed,” according to her lawyer Charles Brewster.
Trump has been invited to testify, which legal experts say suggests an indictment is near.
Will Trump be treated differently?
“His status as a former president, for better of worse, will lead to somewhat different treatment,” Temidayo Aganga-Williams, a former federal prosecutor told Bloomberg.
“The security assessments are different here than if he was a private citizen. He is less likely to be seen as a security threat than a previously unknown defendant.”
Who will be the judge hearing the case?
The decision whether to indict former President Donald Trump over hush-money payments made on his behalf during his 2016 presidential campaign lies with a Manhattan grand jury that has been hearing evidence in secret for weeks.
The Trump grand jury investigation in Manhattan is being overseen by Juan Merchan, the same New York State Supreme Court judge who handled the tax-fraud prosecution of Trump’s longtime chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg and the tax fraud trial of the former president’s two companies, according to the person who asked not to be identified.
Will there be a presser on the case?
If the Manhattan grand jury votes to indict Trump, the indictment would remain under seal until it is formally presented to the court, the person said.
Bragg’s office could announce it at a news conference if he gets the court’s permission to make it public, the person said.
How will the arrest happen?
Law-enforcement authorities would likely call Trump’s lawyer as a courtesy, asking him to surrender to detectives working with Bragg at his lower Manhattan offices, which are in the same building as Merchan’s courtroom, the person said.
Trump’s lawyer Joseph Tacopina said late last week Trump would surrender to authorities if there is an indictment and would not provoke a standoff.
After the processing paperwork is completed, Trump would be arraigned before a New York judge, according to the person. Because the charges would not be violent felonies, no bail would be required, the person said.
A spokeswoman for Bragg declined to comment on what provisions the office would make if Trump is indicted.
If indicted, will Trump be handcuffed?
While Trump will get fingerprinted and have his mug-shot taken, he won’t be marched before cameras in handcuffs or placed in a holding cell, according to a Bloomberg report citing a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t public.
He will likely remain in the custody of the Secret Service agents assigned to his protection detail, the person said.
Will there be a perp-walk?
Two people familiar with the situation said Trump probably won’t have to endure the so-called perp walk, a courtesy that wasn’t extended to his longtime top executive, Weisselberg.
The former Trump Organization chief financial officer was led down a long courthouse hallway in handcuffs and guarded by burly detectives as photographers recorded the spectacle, said a Bloomberg report.
“The Secret Service protection adds another level of complication,” Aganga-Williams said. “Typically, prosecutors after indictment have two options: one, is to give an indicted individual an opportunity to surrender and be taken into custody; or the other is to have that individual arrested.”
Who is Juan Merchan?
Merchan, who handles criminal cases, is well-versed with Trump.
He sentenced Weisselberg to five months in prison after he pleaded guilty to tax fraud charges last year.
Merchan also presided over a weeks-long tax-fraud trial of two of Trump’s companies, later ordering both to pay $1.6 million, the maximum fines allowed under the law. A Manhattan jury found them guilty of all tax fraud charges.
How have authorities reacted to Trumps’ call for protests?
Security in the city remained a top concern after Trump issued a statement on Saturday declaring he expected to be charged on Tuesday and calling for supporters to rally: “Protest, take our nation back!” Trump wrote in his online post.
He also repeated his call for protests in a second Truth Social post on Saturday afternoon. “It’s time!!!” he wrote.
In the wake of Trump’s statements, Bragg in an email cautioned staffers not to be intimidated by Trump’s calls for unrest, saying his office will “not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York.”
Federal law enforcement, including the FBI, Secret Service and US Marshals Service along with the New York Police Department and court officials met on Monday to discuss security concerns around a possible Trump indictment, said a Bloomberg report.
Meanwhile, New York City mayor Eric Adams said the city was prepared. “We are monitoring comments on social media and the NYPD is doing their normal role of making sure that they are there’s no inappropriate actions in the city. And we’re confident we’re going to be able to do that.”
What is a grand jury?
A grand jury is made up of people drawn from the community, similar to a trial jury. But unlike juries that hear trials, grand juries don’t decide whether someone is guilty or innocent. They only decide whether there is sufficient evidence for someone to be charged. Grand juries exist in the federal court system and in many states.
Proceedings are closed to the public, including the media. There is no judge present nor anyone representing the accused.
Prosecutors call and question witnesses, and grand jurors can also ask questions. In New York, the person who could be indicted may ask for a certain witness, though it’s up to grand jurors.
New York grand juries have 23 people. At least 16 must be present to hear evidence or deliberate. Twelve have to agree there is enough evidence in order to issue an indictment. The grand jury may also find there is not enough evidence of a crime or direct the prosecutor to file lesser charges.
What are the charges against Trump?
The payment to Daniels, if not properly accounted for, could result in a misdemeanor charge for falsifying business records. That might be raised to a felony if the false accounting was intended to cover up a second crime, such as a campaign finance violation.
Trump’s lawyer said that his client, if indicted, would surrender to face criminal charges.
Can Trump really be arrested?
Sitting presidents are largely immune from criminal prosecution, however, Trump was ousted from the White House in the 2020 elections, which makes him subject to the rule of law like anyone else.
A former president does have unusual security protocols, however, and terms on any arrest would need to be worked out with the Secret Service.
This is uncharted territory for all agencies involved. Even US President Richard Nixon was pardoned before he could face the criminal justice system for his involvement in the Watergate scandal.
The average criminal case in New York takes more than a year to move from indictment to trial, and Trump’s case is far from typical.
Any trial of the former US president would still be more than a year away, legal experts said, and could coincide with the final months of the 2024 presidential campaign as Trump seeks a return to the White House.
How will an arrest effect Trump’s White House dreams?
Some observers believe an indictment bodes ill for Trump’s 2024 chances, while others say it could provide a huge boost.
“The arrest secures the nomination for Donald Trump,” tweeted Rick Wilson, a political strategist who quit the Republican Party in protest over Trump. “The base will rally politically, and possibly physically.”
Tech billionaire Elon Musk, a self-described libertarian who has increasingly aligned with Republican positions and who overturned the Twitter ban on Trump, went even further.
“If this happens, Trump will be re-elected in a landslide victory,” Musk said in a tweet.
Not even a conviction in the hush money case would prevent Trump from running, but an indictment could have major consequences, galvanising his critics but also electrifying his supporters.
What are the other legal woes being face by Trump?
Trump is facing several criminal probes at state and federal level over possible wrongdoing that threaten his new run at the White House.
In Georgia, a prosecutor is investigating Trump and his allies’ efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in the southern state. The grand jury in that case has recommended multiple indictments, the forewoman revealed last month.
The former president is also the subject of a federal probe into his handling of classified documents as well as his possible involvement in the January 6 rioting.
(With inputs from agencies)Watch Former US President Donald Trump says he’ll be arrested next week