Without human-induced climate change, the events this month would have been “extremely rare”, according to a study by World Weather Attribution, aglobal team of scientists that examines the role played by climate change in extreme weather. “European and North American temperatures would have been virtually impossible without the effects of climate change,” said Izidine Pinto of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, one of the study’s authors, during a pressbriefing. “In China it was aro und 50 times more likely to happen compared to the past. ”
The World Weather Attribution team estimated that rising greenhouse gas concentrations made the European heatwave 2. 5°Celsius hotter than it would otherwise have been. They also drove up the North American heatwave by 2°C and the one in China by 1°C. As well as directly impacting human health, the heat has caused large-scale crop damage and livestock losses, the scientists said, with US corn and soybean crops, Mexican cattle, southern European olives as well as Chinese cotton all severely affected. El Nino probably contributed to the additional heat in some regions, but rising greenhouse gases were the major factor, the scientists said, and heatwaves will become increasingly likely if emissions are not slashed.
They estimated that prolonged periods of extreme heat were likely to hit every two to five years if average global temperatures rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Average temperatures are currently estimated to have risen over 1. 1°C. “As long as we keep burning fossil fuels we will see more and more of these extremes,” said scientist Friederike Otto.