BATHINDA: The human-caused climate change made humid heatwave in the month of April in India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand at least 30 times more likely, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution group. The study also concludes that the high vulnerability in the region, which is one of the world’s heatwave hotpots, amplified the impacts.
In April, parts of south and southeast Asia experienced an intense heatwave, which caused hospitalisations though the number of deaths remains unknown.
The study ‘Extreme humid heat in South and Southeast Asia in April 2023, largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities’ conducted by 22 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution initiative, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in India, Thailand, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Kenya, the Netherlands, the UK, and the United States, was released on Wednesday.
Across the world, climate change has made heatwaves more common, longer and hotter. To quantify the effect of climate change on the Asian heatwave, scientists analysed weather data and computer model simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods.
The analysis looked at the average maximum temperature and maximum values of a heat index for four consecutive days in April across two regions, one covering south and east India and Bangladesh, and second in Thailand and Laos. The heat index is a measure that combines temperature and humidity and reflects more accurately the impacts of heatwaves on the human body.
In both regions, the researchers found that climate change made the humid heatwave at least 30 times more likely, with temperatures at least 2°C hotter than they would have been without climate change. Until overall greenhouse gas emissions are halted, global temperatures will continue to increase and events like this will become more frequent and severe.
In India and Bangladesh, events like the recent humid heatwave used to occur less than once a century on average; they can now be expected around once in five years, and if temperature rise reaches 2°C – as will happen within around 30 years if emissions are not cut rapidly – events like this will occur, on average, at least once every two years.
While high temperatures are the norm in south and southeast Asia, early heatwaves such as this one are particularly damaging. People who are most exposed to the sun and vulnerable populations are routinely the worst impacted. The current patchwork of heatwave solutions must be improved to account for inequalities and existing vulnerabilities, the scientists said, adding that heat action plans should be inclusive and comprehensive, and ensure access to basic services, such as water, electricity and health care.
Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati from Indian Institute of Technology Tirupati, India, said “Although we have recognized heatwaves as one of the deadliest disasters, particularly in countries like India, Bangladesh, and Thailand, there is a lack of knowledge with respect to who is vulnerable, loss and damage estimation, household coping mechanisms, and the most effective heat action plans. Except for the human casualties, other economic and non-economic loss and damage indicators are not documented. This creates a dearth in assessing the extent of risk as who is vulnerable and also operationalizing any adaptation planning.”
Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment said “We see again and again that climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, one of the deadliest weather events there are. Still, heat action plans are only being introduced very slowly across the globe. They need to be an absolute priority adaptation action everywhere, but in particular in places where high humidity enhances the impacts of heatwaves.”
Emmanuel Raju, Director of Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research at the University of Copenhagen said “This is another disaster that highlights the need to reduce vulnerability and think deeper about the limits to adaptation. As it often happens, marginalised people are the worst affected. It is fundamental to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies to avoid visible and invisible loss and damage”.
As per the WWA study the outdoor workers and farmers are most vulnerable for heatwaves. As the farmers work in the fields under severe heat conditions, they are considered pliable to face the impact of heatwaves. Apart from the farmers even the crop productivity too is impacted under heatwaves as was witnessed in 2022 wheat production was impacted. There is need to adopt climate smart agriculture and look for saving the farmers from the impacts. Even out of the 37 heat action plans (HAP) in India, as there is no action plan with farmers and agriculture in mind, which are most prone, the need for plans for farmers and agriculture is necessitated.
In April, parts of south and southeast Asia experienced an intense heatwave, which caused hospitalisations though the number of deaths remains unknown.
The study ‘Extreme humid heat in South and Southeast Asia in April 2023, largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities’ conducted by 22 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution initiative, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in India, Thailand, Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Kenya, the Netherlands, the UK, and the United States, was released on Wednesday.
Across the world, climate change has made heatwaves more common, longer and hotter. To quantify the effect of climate change on the Asian heatwave, scientists analysed weather data and computer model simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods.
The analysis looked at the average maximum temperature and maximum values of a heat index for four consecutive days in April across two regions, one covering south and east India and Bangladesh, and second in Thailand and Laos. The heat index is a measure that combines temperature and humidity and reflects more accurately the impacts of heatwaves on the human body.
In both regions, the researchers found that climate change made the humid heatwave at least 30 times more likely, with temperatures at least 2°C hotter than they would have been without climate change. Until overall greenhouse gas emissions are halted, global temperatures will continue to increase and events like this will become more frequent and severe.
In India and Bangladesh, events like the recent humid heatwave used to occur less than once a century on average; they can now be expected around once in five years, and if temperature rise reaches 2°C – as will happen within around 30 years if emissions are not cut rapidly – events like this will occur, on average, at least once every two years.
While high temperatures are the norm in south and southeast Asia, early heatwaves such as this one are particularly damaging. People who are most exposed to the sun and vulnerable populations are routinely the worst impacted. The current patchwork of heatwave solutions must be improved to account for inequalities and existing vulnerabilities, the scientists said, adding that heat action plans should be inclusive and comprehensive, and ensure access to basic services, such as water, electricity and health care.
Chandra Sekhar Bahinipati from Indian Institute of Technology Tirupati, India, said “Although we have recognized heatwaves as one of the deadliest disasters, particularly in countries like India, Bangladesh, and Thailand, there is a lack of knowledge with respect to who is vulnerable, loss and damage estimation, household coping mechanisms, and the most effective heat action plans. Except for the human casualties, other economic and non-economic loss and damage indicators are not documented. This creates a dearth in assessing the extent of risk as who is vulnerable and also operationalizing any adaptation planning.”
Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment said “We see again and again that climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, one of the deadliest weather events there are. Still, heat action plans are only being introduced very slowly across the globe. They need to be an absolute priority adaptation action everywhere, but in particular in places where high humidity enhances the impacts of heatwaves.”
Emmanuel Raju, Director of Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research at the University of Copenhagen said “This is another disaster that highlights the need to reduce vulnerability and think deeper about the limits to adaptation. As it often happens, marginalised people are the worst affected. It is fundamental to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies to avoid visible and invisible loss and damage”.
As per the WWA study the outdoor workers and farmers are most vulnerable for heatwaves. As the farmers work in the fields under severe heat conditions, they are considered pliable to face the impact of heatwaves. Apart from the farmers even the crop productivity too is impacted under heatwaves as was witnessed in 2022 wheat production was impacted. There is need to adopt climate smart agriculture and look for saving the farmers from the impacts. Even out of the 37 heat action plans (HAP) in India, as there is no action plan with farmers and agriculture in mind, which are most prone, the need for plans for farmers and agriculture is necessitated.