NEW DELHI: The armed rebellion by Wagner group mercenaries, a once-in-a-generation security crisis in Russia, has compounded fears in China over the war in Ukraine and its implications for the global balance of power.
On its part, the ruling Communist Party of China dismissed the revolt as an “internal affair” of Moscow, and state media expressed support for Russia, emphasizing that President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power remains secure.
Live updates: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
However, the uprising has also heightened anxieties in Beijing regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. China claims to maintain neutrality in the conflict but has supported Russia in practice, blaming the US and Nato for provoking the thwarted invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, doubts have emerged about whether China made the right decision in aligning closely with the Kremlin and Putin.
The Wagner rebellion has “likely raised doubts about whether Beijing made the right bet in designating the Kremlin, and Putin specifically, as a close ally and partner,” said Patricia M Kim, an expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, DC.
Experts suggest that Chinese leaders may be concerned that their strategic alignment with a weakened Russia could become a burden rather than an advantage to China’s interests. “Chinese leaders must be concerned that China’s strategic alignment with a weakened Russia may turn out to be a net burden rather than a plus to China’s strategic interests,” Kim said.
“It was probably quite shocking for Beijing and for Xi Jinping personally that Russia’s internal defence mechanisms all failed,” Bjorn Alexander Duben, an expert in Beijing-Moscow ties at China’s Jilin University, said. “It will certainly want to learn lessons from that.”
However, it remains unclear whether China will advise Putin to scale back his ambitions in Ukraine or if the Russian leader would be receptive to such suggestions.
China is closely monitoring the conflict in Ukraine for potential repercussions on its stance regarding Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy. The economic competition with the US also adds to the complexity, with potential economic sanctions targeting wealthy Russians.
China’s state military academics worry about Russia’s underwhelming performance in the war and question whether China has adequately adapted its defense structure away from the former-Soviet Union model it was based on.
Observers draw parallels between China’s relationship with Russia and its ties to North Korea, where China provides economic aid and diplomatic support. However, China’s engagement with Russia is partly influenced by the US, which is seen as forcing China into closer alignment with Russia.
Chinese foreign policy experts express concerns that the Ukraine war has revitalized Nato and US alliances with Europe, raising the possibility of renewed American alliances in East Asia. Chinese military experts have privately questioned Western diplomats about reports of NATO opening a liaison office in Japan, fearing the organization’s expanding interests in the region.
A civil war or major political conflict in Russia could significantly impact the relationship between Beijing and Moscow, especially as Chinese President Xi Jinping sees the two countries aligning to challenge the US-led liberal world order.
Wagner mutiny unnerves some Chinese exporters to Russia
Following the news of the short-lived rebellion by the mercenary Wagner troops en route to Moscow, several businessmen in southern China frantically contacted factories to halt shipments of goods bound for Russia. This event has raised questions among exporters about their future reliance on Russia, Beijing’s closest ally.
“We thought there was going to be a big problem,” Shen Muhui, the head of the trade body for the firms in China’s southern Fujian province said, recalling the scramble among its members exporting auto parts, machinery and garments to Russia.
Shen Muhui expressed concerns about the potential impact of the rebellion on their exports of auto parts, machinery, and garments to Russia. While the crisis has subsided, some exporters remain cautious about the situation’s future uncertainty.
‘China should adjust its position on Russia-Ukraine war’
According to a commentary written by Yang Jun, a professor at Beijing’s China University of Political Science and Law, published on Saturday, China should try to avoid being “pulled into a war quagmire by Russia.”
Yang wrote in the Chinese-language Singaporean newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, “Considering the current situation and the war’s trajectory…China should adjust its position on Russia and Ukraine, clarify its stance, and decisively stand with the victors of history.”
However, it’s not unclear whether Yang’s article was written before the Wagner rebellion.
However, other academics based in China believe that the incident will not prompt Beijing to change its position on Russia.
(With inputs from agencies)
On its part, the ruling Communist Party of China dismissed the revolt as an “internal affair” of Moscow, and state media expressed support for Russia, emphasizing that President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power remains secure.
Live updates: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
However, the uprising has also heightened anxieties in Beijing regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. China claims to maintain neutrality in the conflict but has supported Russia in practice, blaming the US and Nato for provoking the thwarted invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, doubts have emerged about whether China made the right decision in aligning closely with the Kremlin and Putin.
The Wagner rebellion has “likely raised doubts about whether Beijing made the right bet in designating the Kremlin, and Putin specifically, as a close ally and partner,” said Patricia M Kim, an expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, DC.
Experts suggest that Chinese leaders may be concerned that their strategic alignment with a weakened Russia could become a burden rather than an advantage to China’s interests. “Chinese leaders must be concerned that China’s strategic alignment with a weakened Russia may turn out to be a net burden rather than a plus to China’s strategic interests,” Kim said.
“It was probably quite shocking for Beijing and for Xi Jinping personally that Russia’s internal defence mechanisms all failed,” Bjorn Alexander Duben, an expert in Beijing-Moscow ties at China’s Jilin University, said. “It will certainly want to learn lessons from that.”
However, it remains unclear whether China will advise Putin to scale back his ambitions in Ukraine or if the Russian leader would be receptive to such suggestions.
China is closely monitoring the conflict in Ukraine for potential repercussions on its stance regarding Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy. The economic competition with the US also adds to the complexity, with potential economic sanctions targeting wealthy Russians.
China’s state military academics worry about Russia’s underwhelming performance in the war and question whether China has adequately adapted its defense structure away from the former-Soviet Union model it was based on.
Observers draw parallels between China’s relationship with Russia and its ties to North Korea, where China provides economic aid and diplomatic support. However, China’s engagement with Russia is partly influenced by the US, which is seen as forcing China into closer alignment with Russia.
Chinese foreign policy experts express concerns that the Ukraine war has revitalized Nato and US alliances with Europe, raising the possibility of renewed American alliances in East Asia. Chinese military experts have privately questioned Western diplomats about reports of NATO opening a liaison office in Japan, fearing the organization’s expanding interests in the region.
A civil war or major political conflict in Russia could significantly impact the relationship between Beijing and Moscow, especially as Chinese President Xi Jinping sees the two countries aligning to challenge the US-led liberal world order.
Wagner mutiny unnerves some Chinese exporters to Russia
Following the news of the short-lived rebellion by the mercenary Wagner troops en route to Moscow, several businessmen in southern China frantically contacted factories to halt shipments of goods bound for Russia. This event has raised questions among exporters about their future reliance on Russia, Beijing’s closest ally.
“We thought there was going to be a big problem,” Shen Muhui, the head of the trade body for the firms in China’s southern Fujian province said, recalling the scramble among its members exporting auto parts, machinery and garments to Russia.
Shen Muhui expressed concerns about the potential impact of the rebellion on their exports of auto parts, machinery, and garments to Russia. While the crisis has subsided, some exporters remain cautious about the situation’s future uncertainty.
‘China should adjust its position on Russia-Ukraine war’
According to a commentary written by Yang Jun, a professor at Beijing’s China University of Political Science and Law, published on Saturday, China should try to avoid being “pulled into a war quagmire by Russia.”
Yang wrote in the Chinese-language Singaporean newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, “Considering the current situation and the war’s trajectory…China should adjust its position on Russia and Ukraine, clarify its stance, and decisively stand with the victors of history.”
However, it’s not unclear whether Yang’s article was written before the Wagner rebellion.
However, other academics based in China believe that the incident will not prompt Beijing to change its position on Russia.
(With inputs from agencies)