In a note released Tuesday, the firm said economies such as China and parts of Southeast Asia stand to gain the most from a standardised tariff regime. In contrast, the impact on countries like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would be limited, as their existing base tariff rates are already close to 15 per cent.
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“There is a lot of uncertainty, but we do know a few things. A uniform 15 per cent tariff would benefit some Asia-Pacific economies that have faced much steeper country-specific levies,” the report said.
The development follows a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court, which struck down the Trump administration’s country-specific tariff structure. In response, Trump introduced a temporary 10 per cent tariff on all imports for 150 days, with plans to raise it to 15 per cent. However, a formal order or proclamation on the increase is yet to be issued.
Moody’s noted that the court’s decision has also cast uncertainty over ongoing trade arrangements, particularly with India and Indonesia. “The court ruling also raises questions about the recent trade deals made with India and Indonesia. Key details such as the timeline for India to wind down purchases of Russian oil and the volume of tariff-free textile exports from Indonesia have yet to be finalised. India has delayed plans to send a delegation to Washington,” it said.
The ruling may also constrain Washington’s ability to use country-specific tariffs as a negotiating tool, potentially weakening its position in key discussions, including an upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.Also Read: US tariff shuffle spins Indian exports into a trade puzzle
Despite the legal setback, Moody’s expects the administration to explore alternative mechanisms to raise tariffs. “We expect Trump to find other legal routes to raise tariffs, and we wouldn’t be surprised if US tariffs end up close to where they sat before Friday. Some governments may slow-walk ratification of trade deals with the US, but we think they are unlikely to quit altogether for fear of inviting more punitive tariffs,” it said.
Even under a more favourable outcome — where tariff levels stabilise below those seen before February 20 — the report warns of continued uncertainty and operational disruptions in global trade. Companies may also attempt to recover previously paid tariffs, a process Moody’s flagged as potentially contentious and prolonged.
“We may also see a fresh round of front-loading; if US importers treat the ruling as a temporary reprieve, they could rush shipments before tariff walls rise again. In short, the decision may offer momentary relief, but business and policymakers would be wise to keep the champagne on ice,” it said.