US presidential polls have been closely followed because of the US’ preponderance in global matters. Despite the US power being perceived as diminished by some quarters, its imprint on global matters holds strong. There are many countries that look to the US as the only power with the power and capacities to lead during difficult times.
While many parts of the world may view a Trump presidency warily, in India, a Trump return is not viewed with such trepidation. The reason is simple: we have dealt successfully with the vicissitudes of a Trump Presidency before and we believe we have the measure of him as he undoubtedly has of us. India’s relative confidence stems from the fact that it has dealt with both Republican and Democrat administrations and ties have only grown stronger with every successive presidency. The US is today an indispensable partner for India bilaterally and globally – a major source of critical technology, investments, a major military partner, one of India’s top trading partners, a key energy source of fossil and newer varieties, a major education destination for students, a significant source of foreign remittance and home to almost 4.8 million Indian-origin Americans.
Trump, with all his quirkiness, did his bit to place India-US ties on a solid foundation during his first term in office.
Among the major contributions of the previous Trump presidency was the momentum imparted to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). In 2017, there was a revival of this framework, at the official level and elevated to the foreign ministerial level in September 2019. This laid the foundations for subsequent Quad Leaders’ summits starting 2021.Again, it was under Trump’s watch that the US’ Hawaii-based Pacific Command was rechristened the Indo-Pacific Command. Other key developments included the start of the 2+2 dialogue format that brought together the defence and foreign ministers of the two countries to discuss key issues. It was during the first 2+2 dialogue that India and the US signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, dealing with secure military communication and increasing the scope for inter-operability. India was included among the top-tier of countries (the third in Asia after Japan and South Korea) entitled to licence-free exports, re-exports, and transfers under Licence Exception Strategic Trade Authorisation.On trade, India did face some challenges but we used those to weld stronger economic ties with the US. A case in point is the start of fuel imports from the US to bridge the trade deficit gap which was in India’s favour. The US, under Trump, held focus world attention on business prospects in India through the Global Entrepreneurship Summit (GES) in Hyderabad in 2017. The GES gathered entrepreneurs, investors and business leaders from around the world. Through networking, mentoring, and workshops, GES aimed to empower entrepreneurs to pitch their ideas, build partnerships, secure funding, and create innovative goods and services that will transform societies.
One area that the two countries can work on is on reaching a trade agreement. Talks had taken place between officials from India and the US and the basis of an agreement had already been reached. We can pick up from where we left off and conclude a win-win deal for both sides. A second area for collaboration is critical and emerging technologies. India and the US have made a start in this area in 2023. As a country with the fifth-largest economy and exceptional human resources potential, India’s appetite for technology to catapult it into the league of developed nations by 2047 is enormous. It is the US that India is looking to for these critical technologies. The initiative for critical and emerging technologies aims to foster co-development and co-production, and ways to deepen connectivity across the bilateral innovation ecosystems. Biotechnology, advanced materials and rare earth processing technology have been identified as areas for future cooperation.
While Trump did have issues with what he perceived to be high tax barriers in India, the two sides kept the relationship steady. This was because both sides understood what the other brought to the partnership which they considered invaluable. While India-US ties will require work to keep it secure, I have every reason to be optimistic about Trump 2.0. Prime Minister Modi was right when he said at the famous ‘Howdy Modi’ rally with Trump at Houston, ‘abki baar Trump sarkar’.
(The writer is a former foreign secretary and former ambassador to the US)