You’ve closely watched India over the last many years. What needs to be done to reach the developed nation goal?
Developed country by 2047 is a realistic goal. It’s tough, but it is realistic. And it does mean keeping up the 6%-7% or 7%-plus growth rates for that whole period. And 7% growth rate doubles in a decade. So, it means that at that rate of growth, India’s economy could go up by a factor of 5, 6, or 7 in that time period to 2047. It is possible that it would more or less do it. But it does mean growing strongly in that time. The second thing to say is that growth will have to be growth that is sustainable from the point of view of society, inequality and particularly the environment, because India is very vulnerable to collapse in climate and biodiversity. And, of course, India, as a big country of emissions, even though its history has been of…very low emissions relative to other countries, building that growth story in a sustainable way will be very important to its achievement. If the world doesn’t act strongly on climate and biodiversity, the conditions by the middle of the century could be so bad that those kinds of growth rates are just unachievable. It’s not that there’s a choice between environment and sustainability on the one hand and growth on the other. Unless you do both, you get neither. And India now is starting to move – and more than starting to move – quite strongly in that direction, with green energy looking to improve its public transport, and so on.
The developed world did not face these compulsions when they were growing. Will it be possible for India to balance green transition with growth required to become a developed country?
I think the answer to that is, absolutely yes. And the investment in the new way of doing things (and) the leapfrogging to the better, cleaner way of doing things will be something that India absolutely can do. And if India grows in the dirty way of the other countries, it will be bad for India and bad for the world. It’s not a choice… It will undermine growth.
It’s completely wrong to suggest there’s some kind of horse race between environment and development. Unless we do both together by mid-century, we will get neither. If India tries to grow in the dirty way, it will undermine its own growth. Dirty growth doesn’t last. It undermines itself.What is your assessment of India’s green transition?India is really starting to move in a good direction. You know, India really is building its clean electricity capacity and I think to have a really strong strategy now over the next 10-15 years for building electricity and building transport and building infrastructure in a clean way…that’s where India is moving. It’s where India has started to move and I think that’s the future of India – the leapfrog the dirty, destructive models of the past. I think so many people in the Indian leadership, in the public and private sector, see that.
One key issue is technology transfer. How can it be ensured that developing countries like India have access?
The technologies are not like pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceuticals are very well-defined drugs with a makeup that is patentable. These technologies are largely around skills. If you think of how India’s car industry was built, it was built around collaboration, the acquisition of skills. There’s not much patent in that story. But there’s still a question of how you build those skills. I think it will need low-cost investment…some subsidies at the beginning in order to build up those skills in India. The cheapest (products) available at the moment are mostly from China, whether it’s PVs or batteries or electric vehicles. And India has political reasons to want to build those strengths itself. I think part of that support could be from rich countries. It’s conceivable that some might be from China, but I suspect that’s unlikely for geopolitical reasons. That’s a fact. So, let India build those skills itself collaborating with others.
If India grows in the dirty way of the other countries, it will be bad for India and bad for the world, cautioned Lord Nicholas Stern, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government and chair of Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics. In an interview to ET’s Deepshikha Sikarwar, Stern – author of the influential Stern Review that warned against the economic impact of climate change – said the country has an enormous opportunity to leapfrog and pass the dirty models of the past for cleaner and sustainable growth. Edited excerpts:
You’ve closely watched India over the last many years. What needs to be done to reach the developed nation goal?
Developed country by 2047 is a realistic goal. It’s tough, but it is realistic. And it does mean keeping up the 6%-7% or 7%-plus growth rates for that whole period. And 7% growth rate doubles in a decade. So, it means that at that rate of growth, India’s economy could go up by a factor of 5, 6, or 7 in that time period to 2047. It is possible that it would more or less do it. But it does mean growing strongly in that time. The second thing to say is that growth will have to be growth that is sustainable from the point of view of society, inequality and particularly the environment, because India is very vulnerable to collapse in climate and biodiversity. And, of course, India, as a big country of emissions, even though its history has been of…very low emissions relative to other countries, building that growth story in a sustainable way will be very important to its achievement. If the world doesn’t act strongly on climate and biodiversity, the conditions by the middle of the century could be so bad that those kinds of growth rates are just unachievable. It’s not that there’s a choice between environment and sustainability on the one hand and growth on the other. Unless you do both, you get neither. And India now is starting to move – and more than starting to move – quite strongly in that direction, with green energy looking to improve its public transport, and so on.
The developed world did not face these compulsions when they were growing. Will it be possible for India to balance green transition with growth required to become a developed country?
I think the answer to that is, absolutely yes. And the investment in the new way of doing things (and) the leapfrogging to the better, cleaner way of doing things will be something that India absolutely can do. And if India grows in the dirty way of the other countries, it will be bad for India and bad for the world. It’s not a choice… It will undermine growth.
It’s completely wrong to suggest there’s some kind of horse race between environment and development. Unless we do both together by mid-century, we will get neither. If India tries to grow in the dirty way, it will undermine its own growth. Dirty growth doesn’t last. It undermines itself.
What is your assessment of India’s green transition?
India is really starting to move in a good direction. You know, India really is building its clean electricity capacity and I think to have a really strong strategy now over the next 10-15 years for building electricity and building transport and building infrastructure in a clean way…that’s where India is moving. It’s where India has started to move and I think that’s the future of India – the leapfrog the dirty, destructive models of the past. I think so many people in the Indian leadership, in the public and private sector, see that.
One key issue is technology transfer. How can it be ensured that developing countries like India have access?
The technologies are not like pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceuticals are very well-defined drugs with a makeup that is patentable. These technologies are largely around skills. If you think of how India’s car industry was built, it was built around collaboration, the acquisition of skills. There’s not much patent in that story. But there’s still a question of how you build those skills. I think it will need low-cost investment…some subsidies at the beginning in order to build up those skills in India. The cheapest (products) available at the moment are mostly from China, whether it’s PVs or batteries or electric vehicles. And India has political reasons to want to build those strengths itself. I think part of that support could be from rich countries. It’s conceivable that some might be from China, but I suspect that’s unlikely for geopolitical reasons. That’s a fact. So, let India build those skills itself collaborating with others.