“Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon,”Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, said.
While northern and central parts of the country are expected to be at risk of being rain deficit, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the agri bowl of North India, are likely to observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season.
According to Skymet, the other weather condition – India Ocean Dipole – is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon. “El Nino and IOD are likely to be ‘out of phase’ and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. The second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated,” it added.
Monsoon takes place in India for a period of 4 months from June to September.
Earlier the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the official weather forecaster, had also suggested that there is a possibility of El Nino impact in July, August and September. It is expected to announce its monsoon forecast soon.El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The US government weather agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in its forecast had also predicted that El Nino could return as early as June, when the southwest monsoon sets over the Kerala coast in its four-month journey producing 85% of rainfall India receives.