Setty believes deposit interest rates have already reached their highest point and anticipates the RBI will maintain current rates until the projected February 2025 cut. This means both depositors and retail loan customers can expect current interest rates to remain unchanged until then.
“Our house view is that the first rate cut will probably happen only in Feb, which means until then, depositors would continue to have the rate of interest that we have currently, without any reduction. As far as retail loan customers are concerned, they may have to wait up to Feb,” Setty explained during an analyst meeting.
This prediction comes shortly after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das cautioned about potentially higher inflation figures for October, potentially exceeding September’s 5.5%. Although the RBI forecasts a 4.5% consumer price index inflation for the fiscal year 2025, it has expressed concerns about potential inflation risks stemming from geopolitical situations, commodity prices, and unanticipated rainfall during harvest time. If the RBI implements a rate cut in February 2025, it will mark the longest pause in rate adjustments since the last increase in February 2023.