The article released on Monday also stated that the global economy is transfixed in the cross-currents of slowing growth and high inflation, and an uneasy calm prevails in the global financial markets as they await clearer signals from policy authorities on banking regulation and supervision, and contours of deposit insurance.
In April and the first half of May 2023, domestic economic conditions have sustained the quickening of momentum seen in the last quarter of 2022-23, said the article on ‘State of the Economy’.
Headline inflation eased below 5 per cent in April 2023, for the first time since November 2021. Earlier in March this year, the finance ministry had also signalled at rebounding demand. The ministry in its report had said that the private consumption in India is witnessing continued momentum and its estimated to grow at 7.3 per cent in 2022-23, reflecting the rebound demand witnessed in the current year on account of the release of pent-up demand for contact-intensive services. In 2021-22, private consumption grew at 11.2%.
The bulletin further said corporate earnings are beating consensus expectations, with banking and financial sectors posting strong revenue performance, aided by robust credit growth.
“GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 is expected to be driven by private consumption, supported by revival in rural demand that is underway on the back of the encouraging developments in both the kharif marketing season of 2022-23 and the Rabi marketing season of 2023-24, the sustained buoyancy in services, especially contact-intensive sectors, and moderating inflationary pressures,” said the bulletin.
The article was authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra. The central bank, however, said the views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India.
(With inputs from agencies)