“Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to real GDP growth in the range of 7.0-7.4 per cent for 2025-26 and in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent for 2026-27,” the RBI said.
The economy is expected to grow at 7.4 per cent in FY26, as per the advanced estimates released by the government.
The RBI survey was conducted during January, and had 44 participants, including economists and other experts.
Earlier in the day, Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the RBI will come up with its FY27 GDP growth estimate only in April, once the new series of GDP data comes in.
He gave out the estimate for the first half of FY27, with upward revisions in both Q1 and Q2.
The growth projection for April-June 2026 was revised up by 0.20 per cent to 6.9 per cent, while the same for Q2 was upped by a similar 0.20 per cent to 7.0 per cent. “Projections for full year 2026-27 will be set out in the Monetary Policy Statement to be announced in April 2026 after incorporating the new GDP and CPI series (base 2024=100) to be released on February 27 and February 12, 2026, respectively,” a RBI statement said.
The professional forecasters said the real GDP will grow 7.3 per cent in Q3FY26; and between 6.7-7 per cent in the subsequent four quarters, the survey added.
Further, the survey showed that annual growth in real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for 2025-26 are both expected at 7.4 per cent; and for 2026-27, at 7.1 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively.
On the Inflation front, annual headline inflation, based on CPI-Combined, is expected at 2.0 per cent during 2025-26 and at 4.0 per cent during 2026-27. Headline CPI inflation (y-o-y) is expected at 2.8 per cent during Q4FY26, survey noted.
Forecasters in the survey pegged that thereafter, inflation is expected to increase to 3.8-3.9 per cent during H1FY27 and further to 4.4 per cent during Q3FY27.
CPI inflation, excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants, and fuel and light, is expected at 4.5 per cent during Q4FY26 and thereafter it is projected to gradually moderate to 4.2 per cent by Q3FY27, the professional forecasters’ survey said.
Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to the headline CPI inflation lying in the range of 2.5-2.9 per cent in Q4FY26; and in the range of 3.5-3.9 per cent during Q1FY27 and 4.0-4.4 per cent during the subsequent two quarters of 2026-27, survey added.