The committee, chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, said economic momentum remains resilient despite global volatility, with FY26 growth estimated at 7.4% and projections for the first half of FY27 nudged up to about 6.9–7.0%, helped by strong domestic demand, investment activity, and recent trade deals expected to lift exports and capital inflows.
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Inflation, meanwhile, has stayed unusually soft, with headline CPI at 0.7% in November and 1.3% in December and projected at 2.1% for FY26, though it may edge toward the 4% target in early FY27 due largely to base effects and higher precious-metal prices rather than broad demand pressures. Members said underlying inflation excluding such volatile components remains muted, suggesting little risk of overheating.
Overall, the tone of the minutes suggested guarded optimism: external risks from geopolitics, commodity swings and financial-market volatility persist, but the domestic macro balance has improved enough for the panel to watch and wait rather than move.
The statistics ministry, in mid-February, unveiled a new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series, updating the base year to 2024 from 2012. The revision resets the benchmark for measuring prices to better assess inflation. The CPI is the Reserve Bank of India‘s primary inflation gauge and plays a central role in monetary policy and interest rate decisions.