Estimates broadly peg the dividend to be around ₹3 lakh crore, compared with ₹2.7 lakh crore last year. RBI dividends have provided a significant boost to the government’s non-tax revenues in recent years.
Standard Chartered Bank said the RBI’s dividend to GDP ratio is likely to remain stable but could increase if the central bank lowers its contingency risk buffer (CRB). The CRB threshold was widened to 4.5-7.5% in FY26 from 5.5-6.5% earlier.
“The RBI kept the CRB threshold at 7.5% in FY26, but a potential lowering to 5.5%, along with a further acceleration of USD sales, could result in RBI dividend pay-outs of ₹2.5-3.0 lakh crore,” StanChart said in its budget preview. RBI dividends have averaged 0.7% of GDP over FY25-26, according to the bank.
BofA Global Research said RBI dividends have become a key anchor for fiscal arithmetic.
“The RBI’s dividends to the government in the last few years have become consistently more important for fiscal finances, aided by high interest rates and persistent currency depreciation and intervention,” it said. BofA expects the transfer to be ₹2.9 lakh crore. It added that a lower capital buffer could raise the pay-out: “If the RBI chooses to maintain a smaller capital adequacy, it can potentially give a larger dividend, by ₹84,000 crore for every 1% reduction realised equity of the RBI.”
ICICI Bank, Barclays and HSBC also forecast an RBI dividend of ₹3 lakh crore in FY27, driven mainly by forex-related gains.According to Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, the historical cost of RBI’s gross dollar purchases is currently tracking at ₹69.3, implying gains from sales in recent months.
The rupee weakened 7% to close at 91.72 to the dollar Tuesday from 85.60 on April 2 last year, despite RBI intervention to curb currency volatility.
Sen Gupta, however, expects RBI’s gains from forex market intervention to be lower this year and that to weigh on the dividend pay-out
RBI’s gross dollar sales this fiscal year till November was $97.9 billion, compared with $195.6 billion a year earlier, she said. “Hence RBI will make less profits on forex transactions in FY26. The lower gross dollar sales were because RBI couldn’t use swaps to sterilise spot dollar selling as aggressively as last year.” Accordingly, IDFC First Bank has pegged the dividend at ₹2.3 lakh crore.
Nomura and Care Ratings also expect the government to budget conservatively. “The government will most likely budget it lower than the blockbuster levels of ₹2.7 lakh crore in FY26,” Nomura said. Care Ratings estimates the dividend to be ₹2.0-2.5 lakh crore.
Interest earnings on foreign currency assets and government securities remain key sources of RBI income. Foreign currency assets make up 61% of the RBI balance sheet, while 23% is held in government securities, IDFC First Bank said.