“There is a lag of 10-12 days in sowing across main agricultural regions. Any further delay will lead to lower yield,” said Santosh Jhanwar, chief executive of Agriwatch, a farm research firm that works with about half a million farmers.
The country is 37% deficient in rainfall at present. Monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, against the normal June 1 onset.
Sowing of pulses begins only four to five days after the arrival of monsoon, as farmers need 2-2.5 inches of water in the fields. “With so much rainfall deficiency, soil moisture is depleting,” said Suresh Agarwal, president, All India Dal Mill Association.
Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted a “dismal” rainfall outlook in the core agricultural zone until the first week of July, which is a crucial time for sowing – or at least preparing the fields – for the kharif season. “Agriculture heartland is looking rather cracked and parched,” it said last week.
Soyabean is likely to be one of the most affected crops, as it requires a high amount of water. “We could see a lower acreage for soyabean this year,” said Rahul Chauhan, director of iGrain, an agri-research firm.
IMD expects normal rains
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is still stuck at Ratnagiri, Koppal, Puttaparthi and Sriharikota in the south, and Malda and Forbesganj in the east, for the last few days.
IMD has predicted a normal monsoon this year, despite the onset of El Nino that tends to disturb global rainfall patterns.
While central India, the key agricultural zone, is 55% deficient in rainfall, the shortfall in the southern peninsula stands at 61%. The east and northeast zone is 23% deficient in rainfall.
After Cyclone Biparjoy brought copious rain over parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan, the deficiency over northwestern India reduced.