ISMA cuts India’s 2025-26 sugar production estimate by 5.5% due to erratic weather

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Pune: Industry body Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has cut 2025-26 sugar production estimate by 5.5% in its third advance estimates.

The sugarcane yield in Uttar Pradesh is lower than earlier projections. “This is primarily attributable to the ongoing varietal replacement programme in the state, which has temporarily impacted productivity levels. However, sugar recovery in the state has been reported higher than last season,” said ISMA in a release.

The yield per unit area in Maharashtra and Karnataka has declined despite reasonable sugar recovery levels due to early onset of flowering in sugarcane, said ISMA.

“Flowering began across many cane growing regions from January onwards rather than being confined to only traditional river belts. Early flowering — often triggered by abnormal weather patterns, including excess rainfall during key growth phases — accelerates cane maturity and reduces biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter, less productive stalk,” the release said.

It added: “Additionally, higher crush rate this year shortened the effective harvesting window, reducing field retention time and limiting late-stage biomass accumulation.”


ISMA has revised the gross sugar production downward to 324 lakh tonnes from its earlier estimate of 343 lakh tonnes.

With an estimated diversion of 31 lakh tons for ethanol, the net sugar production is expected to be 293, which is 12% higher than last year, said ISMA.



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