U.S. president Donald Trump warned on January 4 that Washington could raise tariffs on Indian goods if New Delhi does not stop buying Russian oil. The warning comes at a time when Indian exports to the U.S. are already under strain. At present, Indian shipments face a cumulative 50% import tariff, with half of that directly linked to India’s continued purchases of Russian crude.
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Pressure is also building on Capitol Hill.
U.S. senator Lindsey Graham is pushing legislation that would impose sweeping secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas if Moscow refuses to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine within 50 days. If passed, the move would significantly raise the cost of doing business with the U.S. for countries seen as financing Russia’s war effort.
India has taken some steps to reduce its exposure.
Following U.S. sanctions imposed in October on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, large refiners such as Reliance Industries and several state-owned firms indicated they would halt purchases to avoid secondary sanctions. However, Russian oil imports have not stopped altogether. Volumes have declined, but flows continue, placing India in what GTRI describes as a strategic grey zone.
That ambiguity, the think tank argues, is increasingly untenable.
If India intends to stop buying Russian oil, it must do so decisively. If it plans to continue sourcing crude from non-sanctioned Russian suppliers, it should state that position openly and back it with data. And if New Delhi is prepared to buy even from sanctioned entities, that stance too must be articulated clearly.
What no longer works, GTRI says, is hedging.
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The decision is further complicated by the uncertainty of U.S. demands.
Even a complete halt to Russian oil imports may not ease pressure from Washington, which could pivot to other areas such as agriculture, dairy market access, digital trade, or data governance.
GTRI also notes that the current phase of tariff coercion is tied to a specific political moment in the U.S. and may not last indefinitely. Countries such as the European Union, Japan and South Korea chose to ease tensions by sharply reducing Russian oil purchases.
India’s position, however, differs from that of China, the world’s largest buyer of Russian crude, which Washington has largely avoided confronting due to the broader strategic and economic consequences.
Despite India doubling its imports of petroleum crude and products from the U.S., this has not softened Washington’s stance. The impact is already visible in trade data. Indian exports to the U.S. fell 20.7% between May and November 2025, and a further escalation in tariffs could deepen the decline.
As tariff threats harden into policy, GTRI says India can no longer afford strategic ambiguity. New Delhi must take a clear call on Russian oil, stand by that decision, and communicate it unambiguously to Washington, said Ajay Srivastava.