Speaking to ANI, GTRI Founder Ajay Shrivastava said the momentum needed to hit the ambitious target is missing, particularly on the goods side. India’s combined exports of goods and services stood at around USD 825 billion last year, and are expected to rise only marginally this year.
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“We are almost there. Last year’s exports of goods and services were about USD 825 billion,” Shrivastava said. “This year, because there will be flat growth, almost no growth in goods exports, growth in services exports, our total exports in FY26 will be around USD 850 billion. We will be short by USD 150 billion in reaching the target of USD 1 trillion.”
He said a sharp jump in exports is unlikely unless India concludes major trade agreements with key partners. “That I think we may achieve once our trade deal with the US and EU comes. That is maybe next year, not this year,” he added.
While overall export growth remains subdued, Shrivastava pointed to early signs of geographic diversification in India’s trade data. Exports to the US have declined sharply in recent months, but shipments to other markets have picked up.
“We have seen that between May and November, our exports to the US are down by 20.7 per cent,” he said. “But during this time, our exports to the rest of the world increased by 5.5 per cent. That means diversification already started happening in a small way.”
However, he warned that expanding into new markets will not be enough unless India also changes what it sells abroad. “For more diversification, for more exports to these countries, we have to focus on diversifying our export basket also,” Shrivastava said. “Right now, our export basket needs inclusion of more medium to high-tech products.”
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Shrivastava also offered a cautious view on multilateral groupings and global economic shifts. On BRICS, he said, “The BRICS is not an entity like Europe or ASEAN. It’s a loose compilation of countries and its agenda is largely driven by China.” India, he added, “subscribes to limited agenda, not all the agenda of the BRICS.”
Commenting on the rupee, Shrivastava said currency pressures are largely driven by global monetary conditions. “A large part of the depreciation, the ownership rests with how the US tweaks its interest rates,” he said, adding that stronger export performance would help ease pressure on the currency.
He also urged India to take a more assertive stance at the World Trade Organization, arguing that the body has failed to deliver meaningful outcomes for decades.
“Almost nothing has happened in the past 25 years in the WTO except a trade facilitation agreement,” Shrivastava said, adding that the institution has strayed from its core purpose. “India should tell the WTO members to focus more on the trade agenda, which is the core part of the WTO.”
India, he said, must also safeguard its agricultural interests and work with countries that share similar priorities. “India should initiate coalition-building efforts with like-minded countries like South Africa or Brazil to push for the core trade agenda,” he said.
Despite the export slowdown, Shrivastava struck an optimistic note on domestic growth. “The domestic economy is working fine,” he said. “The GDP numbers are telling; low inflation numbers are telling. The only pressure on the GDP will be the pressure on the export side.”