India GDP Q3 FY26 Highlights: Growth at 7.8% in Oct–Dec after data revamp; FY26 forecast raised to 7.6%

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 7.8% in the third quarter of FY26, beating estimates of 7.4% but easing from the previous quarter’s 8.4% expansion, amid a reset in the country’s economic data. The full-year FY26 growth projection has been revised to 7.6% from 7.1% in the previous year.

According to an ET poll, expectations for quarterly GDP growth ranged between 7% and 8.7%, with the latest print indicating that economic activity remained stronger than anticipated.

For the full fiscal year ending in March, the government expects the South ⁠Asian economy ‌to have grown by 7.6 per cent, the National Statistics ⁠Office said. It had been forecast to grow by 7.4 per cent under the old data series.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has undertaken to revamp economic data, including for inflation ‌and gross domestic product, by expanding the sources of information and ⁠updating the base year to 2022-23, among other changes. The adjustments aim to address criticism of outdated data practices and enhance accuracy.

According to the new series, the gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow at 7.6 per cent during the current fiscal, as against 7.4 per cent in the advance estimates released by the ministry in January.

Also, the growth rate for the July-September period of 2025-26 has been revised upwards to 8.4 per cent from 8.2 per cent.

However, the growth rate for the first quarter was revised downwards to 6.7 per cent from 7.8 per cent.India and US ties trade tensions

India’s government has remained optimistic about growth outlook for the current and next financial year, despite trade tensions with the US for much of last year. The two countries agreed to a trade deal earlier this month, and senior officials have said it could lift growth estimates further. However, the outlook for those trade terms is now uncertain after the Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration’s tariffs.

To shield the economy from trade disruptions, the government last year rolled out sweeping reforms, including an overhaul of consumption taxes. Friday’s data will also provide the first full-quarter snapshot since those tax cuts, covering the October-to-December period. According to the median of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey, the October-to-December quarter may show growth of 7.6% under the new base year.