GDP to cross $4 trillion, growth set to top 7% in FY26: CEA

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India’s economic growth should exceed 7% this fiscal year, and the size of the economy would cross $4 trillion, driven by the 8.2% rate of expansion in the second quarter, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said Friday.

“Looking at an 8% growth rate in the first half, compared with the first half of the last financial year, we are now talking about a growth rate of either 7% or higher, and that is a good situation to be in,” Nageswaran said. He attributed the pace of robust growth in the September quarter to financial and macroeconomic stability and fiscal prudence.

The 2024-25 Economic Survey had projected real economic growth of 6.3-6.8% for FY26.

In his presentation after the publication of the second-quarter GDP growth data, Nageswaran said that the confluence of stable inflation, sustained public capex, and reform momentum positions the economy to navigate risks, as reflected in upward revisions to FY26 GDP growth projections by various agencies.

“We will continue to monitor the global environment, but I think in the current uncertain global environment, the Indian economy does stand out as a relative oasis of tranquillity, stability, and growth,” he added. Nageswaran said that core inflation remains stable, and timely sowing of winter crops and healthy reservoir levels reinforce a benign food supply outlook.


Growth momentum is firming, driven by robust expansion in manufacturing and services, supported by festive demand and GST-led gains, he said. Ongoing structural reforms, including implementation of labor codes, GST rate rationalization, the new personal income tax regime, and deregulation initiatives, continue to enhance efficiency and competitiveness. He noted that the cumulative GST collection growth of 9% for April-October 2025 indicates that the underlying revenue stream has remained resilient, aided by firm consumption and improved compliance. New Delhi: India’s economic growth should exceed 7% this fiscal year, and the size of the economy would cross $4 trillion, driven by the 8.2% rate of expansion in the second quarter, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said Friday.

“Looking at an 8% growth rate in the first half, compared with the first half of the last financial year, we are now talking about a growth rate of either 7% or higher, and that is a good situation to be in,” Nageswaran said. He attributed the pace of robust growth in the September quarter to financial and macroeconomic stability and fiscal prudence.

The 2024-25 Economic Survey had projected real economic growth of 6.3-6.8% for FY26.

In his presentation after the publication of the second-quarter GDP growth data, Nageswaran said that the confluence of stable inflation, sustained public capex, and reform momentum positions the economy to navigate risks, as reflected in upward revisions to FY26 GDP growth projections by various agencies.

“We will continue to monitor the global environment, but I think in the current uncertain global environment, the Indian economy does stand out as a relative oasis of tranquillity, stability, and growth,” he added. Nageswaran said that core inflation remains stable, and timely sowing of winter crops and healthy reservoir levels reinforce a benign food supply outlook.

Growth momentum is firming, driven by robust expansion in manufacturing and services, supported by festive demand and GST-led gains, he said. Ongoing structural reforms, including implementation of labor codes, GST rate rationalization, the new personal income tax regime, and deregulation initiatives, continue to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.

He noted that the cumulative GST collection growth of 9% for April-October 2025 indicates that the underlying revenue stream has remained resilient, aided by firm consumption and improved compliance.



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