The finance minister called India a ‘bright spot’ in the global economy, highlighting its position as the fifth largest economy. Last year, India had surpassed the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest economy and is now behind only the US, China, Japan and Germany, as per the IMF projections. A decade back, India was ranked 11th among the large economies.
Recently, a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter lifted India’s growth to 7.2 per cent in FY23, exceeding the 7 per cent cited in the second advance estimates released in February, underscoring the country’s economic resilience in the face of multiple challenges.
As per the provisional estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) recently, real GDP growth for 2022-23 stood at 7.2 per cent, higher than the 7 per cent projected earlier.
The gross domestic product (GDP) rose 6.1 per cent in the March quarter from a year earlier, accelerating sequentially as well from the upwardly revised 4.5 per cent in the preceding quarter, government data showed. An ET poll of 20 economists had earlier estimated 5.1 per cent median growth in the fourth quarter.
Recently, Chief Economic Advisor Dr V Anantha Nageswaran lauded the estimated 7.2 per cent real GDP growth in 2022-23 and expressed confidence that when the final numbers for the fiscal are frozen in early 2026, the growth will be higher.
Speaking at an event organised by the Bharat Chamber of Commerce, Nageswaran said 7.2 per cent GDP growth is “heartening achievement for the government and economy”.
“It is efforts of people like you more than the government that gave us 7.2 per cent real GDP growth in FY 23 following the 9.1 per cent in FY 22,” ANI quoted him as saying.
Nageswaran said India’s GDP growth estimates are presented six times and “the final estimate for FY 23 will actually be with us in January-February 2026. And my expectation and belief is that when the final number for FY23 is frozen in February 2026, the number will be more than 7.2 per cent.”
Nageswaran said this is the first reliable estimate of GDP growth and “as more and more data become available, further revision will be for upside from 7.2 per cent.”
Meanwhile, Moody’s on Sunday said the Indian economy is expected to clock a 6-6.3 per cent growth in June quarter, and flagged risks of fiscal slippage arising from weaker-than-expected government revenues in the current fiscal.
The growth estimate released by Moody’s is lower than the 8 per cent projection for the first quarter made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week.
In an interview with PTI, Moody’s Investors Service Associate Managing Director Gene Fang said India has a relatively high level of general government debt at around 81.8 per cent of GDP for 2022-23, and low debt affordability.
“We expect India’s growth to come in around 6-6.3 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, which remains relatively flat from the 6.1 per cent recorded in the final quarter of fiscal 2022-23,” PTI quoted Fang as saying.
(With inputs from agencies)