While India currently holds about two months of buffer stocks of urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), according to industry estimates, executives warned that any prolonged disruption in gas availability could force a suspension in local manufacturing.
Qatar on Monday halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production due to security concerns following Iranian drone attacks at its facilities as part of a broader retaliation to Israeli and US military strikes. Urea production relies heavily on imported LNG, and a sustained shortage would force plants to idle, tightening supplies just as farmers prepare for the coming summer crop cycle, followed by the kharif or monsoon crop season.
“The country will have to look for alternate sources of gas for continuing domestic urea production,” said a top executive at a leading urea manufacturer, cautioning that spot LNG buying would be costly in the current market scenario. India imports nearly its entire requirement of muriate of potash and up to 60% in case of DAP, besides being fully import-dependent for LNG. A disruption in fertiliser imports and subsequent local production may have a bearing on farm productivity.
Subsidy Bill may Swell
While there is still time for the kharif season to commence, planning for imports-—which includes fixing prices and signing deals—happens in February-March. Some imports also start during this period. Summer cropping, which begins in March and continues till June before the arrival of monsoon, is the smallest planting period in terms of area but is used to boost production of pulses and other shortterm horticulture crops, helping keep food prices and inflation under check.
Fertilisers constitute a politically and strategically important sector, where the Centre spent Rs 1.9 lakh crore in subsidies in FY25. The subsidy is expected to cross budget estimates this fiscal too. Purchasing gas at higher prices will further inflate the subsidy bill.
Despite record domestic urea output, India imported 8 million tonnes of the commodity during April-December 2025, or 85% more year-on-year, according to the Fertiliser Association of India. It also imported 5 million tonnes of DAP during the first nine months of the fiscal, up 46% year-on-year. West Asia, including countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the UAE, is home to key suppliers of urea, sulphur, and ammonia.