ET@Davos 2026: India could become the world’s biggest economy within decades, says David Rubenstein

India could become the world’s biggest economy in a few decades, according to David Rubenstein, cofounder of Carlyle Group, the US-based private equity giant. “I think in our lifetime, or your lifetime, maybe, more than mine, India might be the biggest economy in the world. I would say probably within 20-30 years, it could happen,” he told Arijit Barman in an exclusive interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Rubenstein feels US ties with India are not a concern. “The President has generally been quite positive on US relations with India. He sent over a very close ally of his (Sergio Gor) to be Ambassador,” he said.

US President Donald Trump’s China policy wasn’t aimed at hurting that country, but at righting a trade imbalance. “What China did, when recognising that some challenges exist with the US, is that they began selling products in other markets,” he said. “So, they have an over-$1 trillion annual surplus, and that’s in part because they increased sales elsewhere.”

But China is not Trump’s problem as much as Russia-Ukraine. Trump “feels he has a good relationship with President Xi Jinping, and they will be meeting at least twice this year,” said the 76-year-old Rubenstein. “My guess is that they’ll probably work out some arrangement.”

The Carlyle cofounder urged Indian policymakers not to view global “private credit, private equity (PE), private investments” as a “Western type of investment.” When the PE and private credit markets are allowed to thrive, well-capitalised Indian entrepreneurs will enter the field as well, he said. Such policies will encourage many of these people to stay in India.