The discussion was moderated by Pier Stefano Sailer, partner, consulting, at KPMG.
Opening the discussion, Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive and chief economist, European Policy Centre, drew a sharp distinction between the reality of multipolarity and the absence of a coherent global order.
“Multipolarity is a reality… but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we arrive at a new world order,” he said, warning that a world without rules “is very dangerous… it threatens security, it threatens prosperity, it threatens democracy”.
Zuleeg said that with global powers increasingly flouting existing norms, countries that share an interest in a common order “need to come together and define what these rules look like”, even as the rules are likely to be weaker than in the past.
Ajay Chhibber, economist and former assistant secretary general, UN, argued that the breakdown of the old order cannot be explained only by Washington’s recent actions. “All empires… started rotting from within,” he said, describing the post-war “Pax Americana” as an American empire whose institutions-the United Nations, World Bank, IMF and WTO-were built by the US itself.
The erosion of that order, he said, reflected internal divisions in the leading power, as well as rule-gaming by others. “The breakdown of the world order is not just due to America, it is also because other players… were gaming the rules,” Chhibber said, pointing to China’s role across global institutions and trade.
As countries search for resilience, he argued that India must deepen trade ties beyond China. “Countries like India must find more and more trade deals with countries that are not China,” he said.Vince Cable, former secretary of state for business, innovation and skills and president of the board of trade, United Kingdom, framed today’s turbulence in long-term structural terms. “Back in 1990, the so-called north… had 60% of the world economy. It’s now down to 40%,” he said, attributing this relative decline to the rise of China and India and linking it to “the MAGA movement in America and the populist movements in Europe.”
Cable outlined scenarios ranging from a “global west” aligning emerging markets against China to a looser multipolar environment of bilateral deals, warning that the latter risks eroding international public goods.
“Nobody is taking responsibility… agreements on trade rules, protecting the climate, the law of the seas,” he said, arguing that this is “the time when the arguments for restoring a reformed multilateral system are crucial”.
Klisman Murati, founder and chief executive, Pareto Economics, challenged the language often used to describe the new order. “What we do have isn’t multipolarity but… segmented polarity,” he said, arguing that countries wield different kinds of influence across energy, technology and resources.
Lumping them together, he said, is “a very low resolution way of looking at the world” that does not help businesses or policymakers. Murati said shifts between world orders happen gradually, making it difficult to pinpoint when a new one begins.
“Things happen gradually until we wake up one day and feel this isn’t what I experienced before,” he said, urging a lens that appreciates the ambitions of all countries, not just the top powers.
CAN THE GLOBAL SOUTH DRIVE GROWTH?
Chhibber said the so-called Global South is “a very diverse group of countries”, ranging from fragile states such as Afghanistan and Somalia to economies that have slipped back due to “high levels of corruption, very poor governance and huge debt buildup”. Yet he struck a hopeful note for a subset of large emerging economies. “There is another group of countries like India, like large parts of Southeast Asia, which have done well,” he said, arguing that if India, Vietnam and Indonesia “get their act together and move forward and grow rapidly”, they could become the next engines of global growth.
“I would put my bet on India becoming a very important such centre,” he said, adding that India’s rise could also pull along neighbours such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal.
WHAT RESILIENCE MEANS FOR EUROPE
Zuleeg said Europe is undergoing rapid change. “Europe’s holiday from history is over,” he said, arguing that resilience now spans defence, energy and competitiveness.
The foremost challenge, he said, is Russia. “We have to be sure that we are resilient to the threat… not only the war of aggression against Ukraine… it is a hybrid war which is being fought against the whole of Europe.” Energy resilience is equally critical after “Russian gas was weaponised”, while the return of Donald Trump to the White House means Europe can no longer rely on old security certainties.
“We have to take responsibility for defence and security,” he said, adding that Europe must also develop “a much more common approach” to competitiveness and energy.
EMERGING POWER CENTRES
Murati said his firm’s Global Power Index, built on “10 different metrics” and “30 years’ worth of back data”, shows India’s sharp rise. “India currently sits sixth in the world in the global power index… 30 odd years ago it was 24th,” he said, calling it “the highest rise faster than any other country in the world”.
He urged India to shed labels such as “global South”, arguing that such groupings reflect weak understanding.
“What the Global South really means is the poor countries and India are growing faster than that label can keep it captured,” he said.
On emerging powers, Murati said, “India is certainly an emerging power. Indonesia is another big one,” stressing that future influence will depend on how countries manage competition and reform.
LESSONS GOVERNMENTS STILL FAIL TO LEARN
Drawing on crisis management experience, Cable warned that governments remain ill-prepared for “gray swans, known unknowns”. He cited three lessons: “fiscal discipline, debt management,” noting that “many countries are not prepared”; banking discipline, with regulators under pressure to “relax” rules despite the risk of future shocks; and the need to keep central banks independent.
“Once you lose that… the markets will see the monetary system as simply a way of printing money,” he said, adding that “some of the mainly developed economies… are not in a good shape to face big new shocks,” while some emerging markets may now be better positioned because “they have had terrible shocks in the past but have learned to manage them”.
Across the panel, the warning was consistent: multipolarity without credible rules risks disorder; resilience now spans security, energy and competitiveness; and the balance of power is shifting towards from the developed to the emerging engines such as India and Southeast Asia.