Experts however took a cautious stance for the coming months amid the global turmoil caused by the Iran war.
Gross collections for March grew 8.8% from a year ago, reaching a 10-month high. This was led primarily by robust import-linked revenues, which rose 17.8% to ₹53,861 crore, outpacing domestic GST growth of 5.9% at ₹1.46 lakh crore, official data showed.
For the fiscal year ended March 31, gross GST collections increased 8.3% to ₹22.27 lakh crore, despite the government making a steep rate rationalisation exercise from September 22. The collections remained steady even with the lowering of GST rates on 375 items.
March collections cross ₹2 L cr; experts take cautious stance for coming months amid global turmoil
Net revenues rose 7.1% to ₹19.34 lakh crore, indicating steady tax buoyancy broadly in line with nominal economic growth, reflecting stable domestic consumption.
The Centre issued ₹2.92 lakh crore as refunds for the full year, a 17.8% increase from FY25.
“March’s GST collections feel less like a routine year-end spike and more like a signal that the economy’s core demand engine remains intact, even as external headwinds begin to surface,” said Manoj Mishra, partner and tax controversy management leader, Grant Thornton Bharat.
He added that the sharper rise in import-linked GST highlights both demand strength and global price effects at a time of rising geopolitical risks and crude oil volatility.
“While consumption sentiment remains strong, a significant part of the GST growth is being driven by import taxes,” said MS Mani, tax partner Deloitte, adding that the trend also implies higher customs duty collections.
The data, which captures February activity, doesn’t yet reflect the full impact of escalating tensions in West Asia, said Mani.
Experts said the outlook remains cautious in the coming months due to the war. The government has already flagged rising risks from higher crude oil and fertiliser prices.
“Looking ahead to April, we anticipate a cautious trajectory,” said Saurabh Agarwal, tax partner, EY India, adding that geopolitical headwinds and global inflationary pressures are likely to compress consumption demand. “While the traditional year-end sales may provide a tactical buffer, the mid-term outlook necessitates continued policy intervention to sustain manufacturing momentum against global volatility,” he added.
The figures are provisional and may be revised slightly upon final reconciliation, the government said.
Large producing and consuming states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana continue to anchor collections, while Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh demonstrated slower growth.