MUMBAI – The Indian rupee was little changed on Monday, wedged between oil companies’ dollar demand and a rise in its Asian peers on the back of heightened odds of a 50 basis point U.S. rate cut later this week.
The rupee was at 83.8925 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:25 a.m. IST, barely changed from its close at 83.8875 on Friday.
The dollar index fell 0.2% to 100.8 on Monday while Asian currencies rose, with the Malaysian ringgit and Korean won up 0.8% each and leading gains.
Local oil companies have been “constant buyers ” at sub 83.90 levels on the dollar-rupee pair, a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said.
Despite growing odds of a deeper rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the impact on the rupee is likely to remain muted as the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to allow sharp gains, the trader added.
The odds of a 50 bps rate reduction have risen to 57%, up from 30% as of Sept. 6, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
The rupee has also not benefited from an improvement in portfolio inflows as the RBI likely stepped in to absorb dollar inflows over recent sessions, traders said.
Overseas investors have net bought Indian bonds and equities worth more than $6 billion in so far September, up from around $3 billion in August, according to stock depository data.
The local currency’s muted price action “is largely due to the RBI’s persistent intervention on the buying side, reflected in the build-up of reserves,” Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex, said.
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose for a fourth straight week to hit a record high of $689.24 billion as of Sept. 6, according to central bank data.
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