NEW DELHI: Domestic air traffic from April to November 2024 stood at 107.49 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% and a 12.3% increase over the pre-Covid level of 2019, research and rating firm ICRA said in a statement, indicating a strong rebound in the aviation industry as travel demand continues to rise.
It said domestic air passenger traffic in November reached approximately 14.49 million, a 6.1% increase compared to 13.66 million in October 2024, and a 13.8% increase over 12.74 million passengers in November 2023.
The ICRA statement said international passenger traffic for Indian carriers for the first seven months from April to October stood at 19.03 million with a YoY growth of around 15.9% and a 45.4% increase over the pre-Covid level of 13.1 million.
The rating agency said the outlook for the Indian aviation industry remains stable, due to moderate growth in domestic air passenger traffic and a relatively stable cost environment during the financial year.
It, however, added that the Indian aviation industry would face losses of Rs. 20-30 billion in FY2025 and FY2026, after a profit of ₹16 billion in FY2024. This is because airlines may lower ticket prices to keep flights full, while fuel costs stay high.
“..Nonetheless, the expected losses are significantly lower than losses of Rs. 235 billion and Rs. 174 billion reported in FY2022 and FY2023, respectively. The industry debt metrics in FY2025 are likely to remain range-bound, with interest coverage of 1.5-2.0x times,” it said.
ICRA added that the momentum in air passenger traffic growth, which was 13% in FY2024, was expected to slow down to 7-10% in FY2025 due to the high growth in FY2024 and lower passenger numbers in the first half of FY2025 due to heat waves and weather disruption.
On the supply chain issues, it said, the Indian aviation industry was facing challenges due to supply chain issues and engine failures in Pratt & Whitney (P&W) engines (by September 2024, around 144 aircraft, or 16-18% of the total fleet, were grounded, impacting overall capacity).