India’s chief economic adviser would be surprised if an “elusive” India-US trade deal isn’t signed by March, as most trade-related issues have been resolved.
“I was hoping something would be done by the end of November, but it has turned out to be elusive,” V. Anantha Nageswaran said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Haslinda Amin. “That’s why it is difficult to give a timeline on this. However, I would be surprised if we don’t have it sealed by the end of the financial year.”
A team of US trade negotiators is in India as both the countries work to resolve differences and finalise a trade deal crucial for New Delhi to secure relief from Washington’s punitive 50% tariffs.
Progress on India-US Trade Deal
The negotiations have dragged on for months.
The two nations had initially agreed to wrap up the first tranche of the deal, which covers the tariff rates, by fall this year. After missing that deadline, Indian officials in recent weeks expressed optimism that the two sides could clinch the initial deal before the end of the year.
“I believe this is as much a matter of geopolitics as it is of bilateral trade,” the CEA said. “Right now, it is very difficult to put a timeline to it.”
Impact of 50% US tariffs on Indian economy
The trade uncertainties, stemming from 50% US tariffs and lack of an India-US trade deal have influenced GDP projections, but the “domestic economy is doing rather well,” Nageswaran said during the interview. Indian exporters have managed to withstand tariff effects and “partially offset the negative fallout by diversifying into other markets”, he said.
India’s potential growth has improved thanks to structural reforms over the past decade, the CEA said, adding that the country can sustain high growth with moderate inflation. Consumption demand is faring well and the rural economy is in “very good shape”.
“The economy has surprised us with better performance than we anticipated early in the forecast cycle. I will not be surprised if something like this happens for 2026-27 as well,” he said.
A weak rupee, estimated by the CEA to have lost 5%-15% of its value against India’s trade competitors, has been beneficial for the economy overall. “Having a weaker rupee at this point is not a major problem, as it benefits the export sector given global uncertainties,” he said.