The bullion market is witnessing a reversal of its traditional pattern this festive season. Usually prices hit an all-time high around Navratri and then dip 4-5% by Dhanteras-Diwali, but jewellers say this pattern is unlikely this year.
At the beginning of the year, gold rates were recorded at ₹1,37,120 per 10 gm and silver at ₹2,38,000 per kg on January 1. After a sharp rally in March when gold touched ₹1,67,275 per 10 gm and silver ₹2,95,000 per kg, rates fell from May but have been highly volatile since July.
On October 12, gold was priced at ₹1,51,037 per 10 gm and silver at ₹2,23,300 per kg. On October 13, gold rose to ₹1,52,500 and silver to ₹2,29,500. On Friday, gold was recorded at ₹1,51,200 and silver at ₹2,20,500.
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Weekend rates remain stable after recent fluctuations
Thereafter, on Saturday and Sunday, gold remained stable at ₹1,50,700 and silver at ₹2,18,000.
Unlike the last 2-3 years when gold used to hit all-time high during Navratri, this year the metal has not seen that record surge but volatility continues, said Chowk Sarafa Association senior vice-president Adesh Kumar Jain.
“The current rates are the lowest in the past one year, making it the most beneficial time for customers to buy. These prices will not hold. A further rise is certain due to global instability and the US policy impact affecting worldwide markets.
Despite that, heavy gold buying by central banks and various countries in the international market will push gold and silver values sharply higher in the coming days.
Even if there is no big jump until Dhanteras, prices will record a rise thereafter. Overall, current prices offer the best opportunity for purchase,” he added.
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Global instability expected to keep bullion prices elevated
UP Adarsh Vyapar Mandal’s Sarafa cell in-charge Kshitij Awasthi said global recession fears, sluggish stock markets and corporate layoffs have deepened uncertainty. “Not only common investors but central banks are increasing physical gold holdings instead of US dollar bonds. Demand pressure far exceeds supply internationally, so there is little scope for prices to fall domestically.
Families should buy in Navratri-Karwa Chauth rather than waiting for a dip after Dhanteras,” he added.
Chowk Sarafa Association senior general secretary Vinod Maheshwari said the dollar at an all-time high, wars in Ukraine and Iran and massive gold buying by China to reduce dollar dependence have strained supply.
“There is a perception of recession but actually inflation is impacting every trade. The market seems volatile. This time, the old Dhanteras trend is set to break as both demand and prices will surge during festivals and may break new records even after Diwali,” he added.