The $50-billion question: Who gets what as India and Canada aim to strike a trade deal?

India and Canada are racing to seal a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) by the end of 2026, with Ottawa sending its biggest trade team to India in more than 30 years.

Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates are travelling with Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu through Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru from October 12 to 17, according to Global Affairs Canada.

The mission comes ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Canada in December, which Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office has said in a statement is set to go ahead. Carney said last month that both leaders want to close the talks by the G20 summit in Miami in mid-December.

Also read: India, Canada sign commercial deals as both aim to seal trade pact by 2026

The agreement aims to take two-way trade to $50 billion by 2030. India’s exports to Canada rose 10.63 per cent to $4.67 billion in 2025-26, according to a PTI report, while imports from Canada fell 26.14 per cent to $3.28 billion. Two-way goods trade stood at $7.95 billion, down 8.23 per cent from $8.7 billion a year earlier.

What the trade numbers show

Modi had put total trade at nearly $9 billion in 2024-25 when he announced the $50 billion goal in March, according to a Reuters report. Canada’s own target is C$70 billion by 2030, according to Global Affairs Canada.”Canada and India have complementary economies, and a CEPA can deliver gains to both,” said Mitali Nikore, Chief Economist and Founder, Nikore Associates. “Two-way trade in goods and services was C$30.4 billion in 2025, and both governments aim to more than double it by 2030.”

India’s main exports to Canada are pharmaceuticals, machinery parts, iron and steel, electronics, organic chemicals, jewellery, clothing and textiles, seafood, engineering goods and auto parts, according to the Indian High Commission in Ottawa. Its main imports from Canada are pulses, fertilisers such as potash, mineral fuels, wood pulp, diamonds, aircraft parts, paper and metal scrap.

Services are a large part of the relationship. Bilateral services trade stood at C$19.62 billion in calendar 2025, with India importing C$15.17 billion and exporting C$4.45 billion, the High Commission says. It estimates portfolio investments from Canada into India at more than C$100 billion, and says more than 600 Canadian companies have a presence in India.

What India wants

• Access for its manufacturers: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said in May that India expects the deal to create opportunities for textile and leather companies, Reuters reported. He also said it should cover energy and critical minerals.
• Fuel sales to Canada: The March discussions covered supplying refined petroleum products from India to Canada, the High Commission says.
• Canadian investment: Both sides want the number of Canadian companies operating in India to rise from about 600 to 1,000, Goyal said, according to Reuters.
• Services and mobility: India’s main services exports to Canada are telecommunications, computer and information services and other business services, PTI reported. A joint statement in May said business mobility and people-to-people ties are essential for expanding trade and investment.

On energy, Nikore said: “For India, the C$2.6 billion uranium deal supports its target of 100 GW of nuclear power by 2047. Canadian LNG and critical minerals diversify supply for energy and manufacturing.”

What Canada wants

• Markets beyond the US: Both countries want to diversify trade away from the United States because of tariff announcements, Reuters reported on March 2.
• Energy: The two leaders underscored expanding energy trade in March across LNG, LPG, crude oil, refined petroleum products, potash and uranium, the High Commission says. That includes more oil and LNG imports by India from Canada. Reuters reported that India’s government and Cameco signed a C$2.6 billion uranium supply deal.
• Critical minerals: Sidhu told Reuters in November that Canada has “every element needed to build an electric battery” and that Ottawa welcomes Indian investment in mining critical minerals. The two countries signed a critical minerals MoU in March, according to the High Commission.
• Aerospace: Sidhu has said India will need more than 2,000 aircraft in the coming years. India has backed Canada’s proposal for a business delegation covering aerospace, defence and space, the commerce ministry said, PTI reported on March 29.
• Agri-food and technology: Sidhu named agriculture and artificial intelligence to Reuters. Global Affairs Canada says the mission also includes clean technology, information and communication technology and life sciences firms.

Nikore said India is not a replacement for the US market. “India cannot replace the US as Canada’s main market. The US took 71.7% of Canada’s goods exports in 2025,” she said. “India’s role is to reduce Canada’s exposure to US tariffs in specific sectors.”

She said India offers Canada a long-term buyer and a growing market. “For Canada, India is a long-term buyer for uranium, LNG, critical minerals and forest products. It is a fast-growing market for aerospace, clean technology and ICT, and will need more than 2,000 aircraft in the coming years,” Nikore said. “Canadian pension funds, with about C$108 billion of exposure to India, gain a high-growth destination for long-term capital.”

Who may gain and who may lose

Neither side has made public what it is offering, so what each sector gets is still an assessment and not an outcome. Going by the trade basket and the priorities the ministers have stated, exporters of pharmaceuticals, steel, seafood, garments and auto parts, which already sell to Canada, are the obvious candidates to gain if duties come down. Services firms, including IT, could benefit if business mobility improves.

On who gains, Nikore said: “Indian pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, garments, seafood and electronics gain better access to a high-income market of over 41 million people. Indian IT firms gain from a services chapter.”

The pressure point is farm trade. India imposed a 30 per cent import duty on yellow peas from November 1, 2025, after domestic farmers urged curbs on cheap imports, Reuters reported. India is the world’s biggest importer of yellow peas, buying mainly from Canada and Russia, the report said.

Also read: India, Canada talks gaining momentum, to conclude CEPA negotiations this year: Sidhu

Pulses are India’s first listed import from Canada, according to the High Commission, which also says the two countries announced a Canada-India Pulse Protein Centre of Excellence at NIFTEM in Kundli in March. It is not clear how much of the fall in imports the duty explains.

Canada paused the negotiations in 2023 after ties collapsed following then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations of a possible Indian link to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, according to a PTI report.

The two countries agreed in November 2025 to resume formal talks. With about two months left on the deadline, the coming weeks will show how much of what each side wants makes it into the final text.