Wheat sowing faces heat from water shortage this winter

Pune: India’s wheat acreage could shrink by 5-10% this winter, as water shortage forces farmers to consider switching crops or leaving fields uncultivated, said executives from the wheat processing industry. They, however, expect higher wheat stock held by government agencies, estimated to be about two times that required under regulations, to cushion the impact of lower sowing and keep prices under control.

Farmers in Rajasthan, Gujarat and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are likely to cut wheat planting, as scanty rainfall this monsoon season limited availability of irrigation water. “Area under wheat is expected to decline this year due to multiple factors like prices and availability of water,” said Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India president Navneet Chitlangia.

The less than 1% increase in minimum support price (MSP) for wheat -floor price at which government procures grain – could also discourage many farmers from considering wheat, he said.

“Increase in MSP of wheat is the lowest compared to other rabi crops, which can make farmers shift to other crops like oilseeds and pulses. Government wants farmers to shift to these crops to increase our self-sufficiency,” said Chitlangia.

State governments of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have started advising farmers to opt for crops that require less water.

“We are afraid that many farmers may shift from wheat this year as prevailing prices of competing rabi crops like chana, mustard and maize are substantially higher than wheat prices,” said Rohi Khaitan, a wheat processor from West Bengal.

In Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana, which are facing severe water scarcity, farmers in many pockets will not be able to sow any crop during the rabi season, according to politicians from these states.However, industry is confident that a fall in wheat production may not result in a big increase in prices. “The current wheat stock with the FCI (Food Corporation of India) is nearly double the buffer norm, which will help keep wheat prices in check,” said Chitlangia.

The excess stock with government has allowed India to export an estimated 300,000 tonnes of wheat, as the country lifted a four-year-old ban on the export of the foodgrain.

Meanwhile, FCI has issued its first tender of 2026 to sell wheat under the open market sales scheme, which helps increase availability of wheat in the market, keep prices from rising and reduces excess load of stocks in government granaries.