In a special report, Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs said the labour market impacts of gen-AI are expected to be “uneven” and it looks gen-AI as a medium-term positive for India’s growth outlook.
“Gen-AI could perform 9-17 per cent of the tasks currently undertaken by India’s non-agricultural workforce…we estimate 8-12 per cent of non-agricultural employment is at risk of substitution, while 42-48 per cent of non-agricultural employment is likely to be complemented,” it said, adding that the remainder of the employment will be unaffected.
Employment declines are likely to be concentrated in occupations like routine clerical support, professional and technician, while routine-physical occupations, followed by craft and trade-related workers and machine operators, may see an increase in employment, as physical, manual and interpersonal tasks remain difficult to automate, it said.
From a sectoral perspective, IT-enabled business-process services (BPS) and postal and telecom services face greater substitution risk given their concentration in repetitive, codifiable tasks, it said.
Healthcare, education, financial and professional services appear more exposed to AI-related augmentation through diagnostics and data analytics, it said, adding manufacturing is less directly affected given the more physical task mix.
The brokerage’s baseline suggests Gen-AI adoption could lift annual labour-productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage point over a 10-year period, with a wider range of 0.1 pp to 0.8 pp depending on the complexity of tasks that it is able to perform.