While a two-week cease-fire was announced on Tuesday, experts caution that uncertainty remains; it may take several months before conditions normalise on the ground. “The dynamics of shipping and other commercial aspects may not change overnight, despite Trump announcing a ceasefire,” says Rahul Chauhan, Director of IGrain India. “Right now, the main priority is to clear the existing shipping backlog, and it may take at least six months. Things will take time to change,” he adds.
On the ground, however, India’s foodgrain stocks remain strong despite tensions in West Asia. According to government data, Food Corporation of India (FCI) holds 60.7 million tonnes (MT) of rice and wheat, around 185% above the April 1 norm of 21 MT. But “perishables lack buffers; this is where the war is hitting agriculture the hardest”, say experts. With uncertainty over the trade, they warn that these perishable items, such as fruits and vegetables, are at risk of spoilage.
For instance, Gulf countries account for nearly 80% of Maharashtra’s exports of grapes and bananas. Following the halt of operations at Jebel Ali port on February 28 due to the war, around 800-1,000 containers carrying bananas, grapes, pomegranates, watermelons, onions, and other vegetables have been stranded, says Azhaan Merchant of Bharat Intelligence.
The situation is even more critical, as war started during the peak demand period of Ramadan. “Over 16,000 tonnes of grape exports from Maharashtra alone have been affected, with 5,000-6,000 tonnes at ports already at risk of spoilage. Each stranded container represents produce worth approximately Rs 24 lakh; losses are running into hundreds of crores,” says a worried Merchant. “Unlike grain, perishables cannot wait.”
“Right now, the main priority is to clear the existing shipping backlog, and it may take at least six months. Things will take time to change,” says Chauhan.
With shipments facing trouble, “another 10,000 tonnes of orchard-ready export-quality fruit are now being pushed into domestic markets,” says Merchant. As a result, he says, “Banana prices in Andhra Pradesh crashed from Rs 23,000 per tonne to Rs 6,000 per tonne, a 74% collapse, with 60% of the season’s crop still unsold in orchards.”
Rising input costs, shipment delays
The tensions around the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the past month disrupted transport, causing delays and intermittent raw material shortages. Its impact on India’s agriculture is emerging via higher input costs and supply disruptions, with the price of crude oil rising from about $70 to $105-$120 per barrel, pushing up agri input costs by 15-20% in a month, say experts.
“While there are no immediate signs of acute supply disruption in agri inputs, availability pressures are building. With the key agricultural season beginning post-monsoon in June, any prolonged conflict and continued logistical bottlenecks could translate into tighter supplies during peak demand,” says R.G. Agarwal, Chairman Emeritus, Dhanuka Agritech. For now, the system remains operational but is under strain from higher input costs and delayed shipments, adds Agarwal.
There is no denying that input cost pressures are rising, say experts. For instance, prices of C9 Solvent have jumped from Rs 70 to Rs 105 (nearly 50%), which could raise product prices by 10-15% despite accounting for a small cost share. Companies signal calibrated price hikes from April.
“The most critical indicators to watch now are crude oil stability, shipping timelines, and input availability ahead of the Kharif season. Food inflation trends globally and domestically will also determine how quickly cost pressures transmit to consumers. In India we have sufficient, or rather excess, wheat and paddy, and there are no chances of any shortage. We are dependent on edible oil and pulses on imports and there may be a price increase due to shipment delays,” notes Agarwal.
Hit on crop productivity
The ongoing urea shortage, caused by the war in West Asia, could adversely affect crop productivity, particularly in North India, where soil health has already been strained by excessive use of chemicals, water, and fertilisers, says Chauhan of IGrain India.
“While the government maintains that adequate [fertiliser] stocks are available, the ground situation reflects supply constraints,” says Chauhan. Drawing a parallel with LPG availability, he notes that despite official claims of sufficient supply, consumers continue to face shortages at the point of purchase.
India’s buffer stocks provide comfort in terms of foodgrain availability, but the current stress is on the input side. “We do not expect shortages in the first quarter for pesticides. But since major consumption of agrochemicals happens after the monsoon from June, there is a possibility of shortages in the second quarter if raw material availability becomes uncertain. That may impact volumes during the peak agricultural season and may impact our agricultural production. Continuous monitoring of supply chains and timely policy coordination will be essential if geopolitical tensions persist,” says Agarwal.
Labour pain
The West Asia conflict has also had an impact on agricultural labour. The war has caused disruptions in supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), sharply raising living costs and making urban livelihoods unsustainable for migrant workers.
“The result is a large-scale reverse migration. Workers from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and other states are returning home in significant numbers from Delhi, Mumbai, Surat, and other cities. Trains from New Delhi Railway Station are consistently overloaded with migrant workers citing LPG costs as the primary reason for leaving. At farms in Jalgaon, exporters are already reporting severe labour shortages, with workers either absent or demanding sharply higher wages just to cover food costs,” says Merchant.
For agriculture, this is a critical challenge, as harvesting, grading, packing, and loading in horticulture are manual and highly time-sensitive, and even a delay of 2-3 days in grapes can result in quality loss and lower realisations, experts note.
Labourers are either demanding nearly double the wages to stay on-site or leaving altogether, creating shortages not reflected in acreage or yield data but already evident in packhouses and farms, experts say.
Food prices remain stable: Government
On Monday, the government said essential food prices would remain stable despite tensions in West Asia, supported by adequate stocks of foodgrain, pulses, edible oils, and sugar. The Consumer Affairs Ministry said rice and wheat buffers are sufficient for Public Distribution System (PDS) and NFSA needs, with FCI ready to offload more under OMSS (Domestic); a record 10.52 MT of rice was released in FY26. Wheat stocks stand at 22.2 MT and rice at 38 MT, taking total foodgrain stocks to about 60.2 MT, well above norms.
Pulses buffer stocks are at 2.8 MT, including 0.7 MT each of chana and tur, available for market intervention. Edible oil supplies remain stable, thanks to imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil. No supply constraints have been reported for potatoes, onions, and tomatoes. India imports about 57% of its edible oil requirement, with palm, soybean, and sunflower oils dominating consumption of 25-26 MT.
Ankur Aggarwal, Chairman, CropLife India, and Executive Chairman & Managing Director of Crystal Crop Protection, says India’s agriculture system is well-positioned to handle short-term disruptions, backed by strong foodgrain stocks and policy support, but prolonged geopolitical shocks could expose vulnerabilities, especially in input supply chains.
“Strengthening domestic manufacturing, diversifying sourcing and ensuring faster access to newer crop protection technologies will be critical to improving resilience,” adds Aggarwal.