India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer and biggest importer of edible oils, is counting on bumper 2026 crops to export surplus wheat and cut costly imports of palm, soy, and sunflower oils.
However, higher temperatures during the crucial grain-filling and maturity stages could cut yields, trimming overall production that was expected to reach a record high.
Higher temperatures in March are expected to boost electricity demand.
“Maximum and minimum temperatures in northern and north-western states are likely to be significantly above average in March,” said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.
The IMD is expected to release its forecast for March temperatures later this week. It did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the March temperature outlook.
Maximum temperatures in March are expected to stay up to 7 degrees Celsius above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, the official said. These states account for over 80% of India’s total wheat and rapeseed production.
Winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.
India was forced to ban wheat exports in 2022 after a warm February and March shrivelled the wheat crop.
“Persistent above normal temperatures throughout the first half of March could add to heat stress,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.
Indian farmers have planted wheat and rapeseed on a record area this year.
Day temperatures are expected to start rising in the next few days and by the end of March maximum temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) in many states, said the second IMD official.