Easing inflation, strong macros to drive FMCG consumption this year

Kolkata: Strong macroeconomic indicators and momentum from an uptick in demand in the past couple of months will lead to 5% growth in household consumption of fast-moving consumer goods in the first few months of 2026, according to a study.

The study by researcher Worldpanel by Numerator, formerly known as Kantar, estimates annualised FMCG growth till October at 4.2%. This was slower than 4.9% a year earlier, despite a turnaround after nearly 18 months with FMCG consumption growing at 5.3% in the three months through October – one percentage point more from both the previous three months and a year earlier.

“The country’s GDP expectations have been revised upward. Inflation is low, and food inflation is negative; many manufacturers are passing on these benefits to the shoppers. The RBI’s consumer confidence index also indicates that the confidence is coming back,” the report said. “With the macroeconomic indicators being strong and FMCG also seeing an uptick correspondingly, we expect the coming quarters to strongly build on the momentum,” it predicted.

Worldpanel by Numerator said as prices ease, it expects consumers to marginally increase shopping trips and consumption of more premium categories and brands. “With the gap between branded and unbranded reducing post GST, we should also start seeing the branded equal or beat the pace at which unbranded is growing,” it said.

With macro tailwinds aligning and consumer confidence rebounding, India’s FMCG sector is gearing up for a leap into value-driven growth, the report said.

Leading consumer goods makers such as Marico and Dabur have in recent investor notes cited an early sign of demand recovery during the October-December quarter, aided by the GST rate revision.

“Favourable macroeconomic conditions and recent tax reforms are expected to support a sustained recovery in demand and improvement in revenue trajectory in the coming quarters,” Dabur said on Monday.

ET reported on Tuesday that consumption had improved in the December quarter. Orders at neighbourhood stores rose 6.9%, more than double the 3.1% growth seen a year earlier, according to Bizom, which tracks 8 million kirana outlets in the country.Before Covid, Indians were shopping 139 times a year for FMCG products, the report said. During the lockdowns, it fell to 130 times. However, shopping trips saw unhindered growth thereafter till it hit a stagnation in 2024 and 2025 at 157 trips.

Shoppers are paying an additional ₹10 every trip due to price hikes across key essential categories, it said.