The report stated, “Based on the estimated model, we obtain a nowcast of real GDP growth of ~7.5% in Q2FY26 with possibility of an upside surprise.” It added that GST rationalisation helped trigger a strong festive mood, which “decisively showcased triumph of hope over hype.”
According to the report, indicators across agriculture, industry and services have shown clear acceleration. The share of leading indicators that reflect growth in consumption and demand rose to 83% in the second quarter, up from 70% in the first quarter, pointing to broader improvement in economic activity. Based on its model, SBI’s nowcast places real GDP growth at nearly 7.5% in Q2 FY26, with the possibility of a stronger outcome if the underlying momentum holds.
Meanwhile, an ET poll of 12 economists suggested that India’s economic growth likely quickened to 7.3% in the second quarter, aided by a resilient rural economy, higher government spending and early export shipments. The survey estimates ranged from 6.9% to 7.7%, with a median of 7.3%. The National Statistical Office is scheduled to release the official figures on November 28. The Reserve Bank of India has projected September quarter growth at 7%.
GDP rose 7.8% in the April–June quarter, the fastest pace in five quarters. Growth in the September quarter last year was 5.6%.
GST rationalisation, which shifted to a simpler two-rate structure of 5% and 18% from September 22, reduced taxes on several household products and durables. Economists said pre-festive inventory building, combined with the lower GST rates, lifted economic activity.
On fiscal trends, the SBI report said gross domestic GST collections for November 2025, based on October 2025 returns, may be around ₹1.49 lakh crore, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 6.8%. Including ₹51,000 crore from IGST and cess collected on imports, total GST receipts for November could cross ₹2 lakh crore. The bank linked this to peak festive demand, lower GST rates and better compliance, adding that most states are likely to see positive outcomes.
The report also pointed to a sharp rise in consumption during the festive months of September and October 2025 after GST rationalisation. The first signs of this, it said, came from an analysis of credit and debit card spending. Categories such as auto, grocery stores, electronics, furnishing and travel showed strong growth, particularly in e-commerce. City-level data showed rising demand across regions, with mid-tier cities expanding the fastest, supported by mostly positive e-commerce sales trends.