An 11% drop in fuel cost – from Rs 903 for a 14.2 kg LPG cylinder in Delhi in September last year to Rs 803 in March this year – prevented a steeper increase in the thali cost.
For the non-vegetarian thali, an estimated 9% year-on-year drop in broiler prices, accounting for 50% of the thali’s cost, nearly offset a sharp rise in vegetable prices, which make up about 22% of the cost.
“The increase can be attributed largely to higher prices of vegetables, which account for as much as 40% of a vegetarian thali cost,” said Pushan Sharma, director – research at Crisil MI&A. “Tomato, potato and onion have all clocked sharp increases in price for varying reasons – excessive rainfall in September in key growing states that delayed arrival of kharif onion; crop damage for tomato amid strong festive demand; and depleting cold storage stocks of potato leading to a price spike,” he said.
However, with supplies expected to increase from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh, Crisil expects the prices to stabilise in November. “We expect tomato prices to stabilise in November. Onion prices, too, should moderate with kharif arrivals in mandis. Potatoes may take slightly longer to show a moderation in price,” Sharma said. The RRR report calculates the average cost of preparing a thali at home based on input prices prevailing in north, south, east and west India. The monthly change reflects the impact on the common man’s expenditure.
In October, prices of onion and potato rose 46% and 51% year on year, respectively, because of lower arrivals due to incessant rainfall in September. Rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka has delayed onion harvests.
“The cold storage stocks of rabi potato, which accounts for about 95% of annual potato production, are declining due to the end of the season, while fresh arrivals are slated to begin from December/January. Prices of tomato have more than doubled from Rs 29/kg in October 2023 to Rs 64/kg in October 2024 due to the September rains that damaged the crop and affected their arrivals from states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, coupled with the festive demand,” the report noted.
“Price of pulses, which account for 9% of the veg thali cost, rose 11% due to an 11% lower opening stock, a lower stock pipeline and festive demand. Prices are expected to dip from December once availability of new crops begins,” the report noted.
The month-on-month increase in the costs of veg and non-veg thalis were 6% and 4%, respectively, in October. As compared to September, the increase in the prices of tomatoes in October was 39%, while the increase in prices of onions and cooking oils during the same period was 6% and 10%, respectively.